Tag Archives: Economics

France chooses the centrist path forward. With Emmanuel Macron, the French have elected an outspoken defender of European integration. The result is positive for both Europe and markets. French voters have elected Emmanuel Macron as their next president. With more than 65 percent of the vote, Mr....

The pace of technological development in areas like robotics, virtual reality (VR) and artificial intelligence (AI) has been frenetic. The impact is already being felt in new investment opportunities but also in lost jobs. While it may be too early to pinpoint what the ultimate result of all this disruption to existing business models will be, what is...

In a paper, Ricardo Reis defends macroeconomics against various critiques. He concludes: I have argued that while there is much that is wrong with macroeconomics today, most critiques of the state of macroeconomics are off target. Current macroeconomic research is not mindless DSGE modeling filled with ridiculous assumptions and oblivious of data. Rather, young macroeconomists are doing vibrant, varied, and exciting work, getting jobs, and being published. Macroeconomics informs...

In the Journal of Economic Literature, Ariel Rubinstein discusses Dani Rodrik’s “superb” book “Economics Rules.” The article nicely articulates what economics and specifically, economic modeling is about. Some quotes (emphasis my own) … … on the nature of economics: [A] quote … by John Maynard Keynes to Roy Harrod in 1938: “It seems to me that economics is a branch of logic, a way of thinking”; “Economics is a science of thinking in terms of models joined to the art of choosing models...

The Credit Suisse Research Institute published its seventh Emerging Consumer Survey, the annual report on consumer trends in emerging markets. Key themes are e-commerce, aware consumerism, and the growing popularity of domestic brands. The top three of this year's Emerging Consumer Survey are...

The US Federal Reserve raised the policy rate by 25 basis points in mid-March, but left its outlook largely unchanged. We continue to expect two more rate hikes in 2017. After hawkish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials in recent weeks, the 25 basis point hike in the target range for the...

In his blog A Fine Theorem, Kevin Bryan discusses the history of economic thought leading from the classical economists and Walras to Arrow and Debreu. My read of the literature on GE following Arrow is as follows. First, the theory of general equilibrium is an incredible proof that markets can, in theory and in certain cases, work as efficiently as an all-powerful planner. That said, the three other hopes of general equilibrium theory since the days of Walras are, in fact, disproven by...

In separate blog posts, Russ Roberts and John Cochrane have called for humility on the part of economists. Asking “What do economists know?,” Roberts and Cochrane point out—correctly—that economics is not as strong on quantification as some economists and many pseudo economists pretend, and as is often expected from economists. Economics is not the same as applied statistics although the latter can help clarify, at least to some extent, the empirical relevance of economic theories....

There is gold in Asia, at least gold of the intellectual variety for anyone who wishes to see it. The Chinese offer us perhaps the purest view of monetary conditions globally, where RMB money markets are by design tied directly to “dollar” behavior. It is, in my view, enormously helpful to obsess over China’s monetary system so as to be able to infer a great deal about the global monetary system deep down beyond the...

A number of central banks have taken their interest rates into negative territory in the past years. Credit Suisse Research Institute explores the markets where negative interest rates have been introduced and reports on whether they have been successful. In the autumn of 2014, Denmark and Sweden...