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Tag Archives: Economics

Global Inflation: Low for Longer

Inflation rates in the advanced and developing economies are showing little upside pressure.  Global inflation trends remain quite benign. In most of the major advanced economies, headline inflation peaked in the first quarter once the positive base effects from energy price developments had faded....

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Fed Still Committed to Hike

The Fed's new forecasts show a third rate hike in 2017 for the second half of the year and three more in 2018. As expected, the US Federal Reserve raised the target range for the policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.00 percent – 1.25 percent. It also updated its policy normalization principles with...

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Necessity is the Mother of Invention – Retirees Desperate Reach for Yield

Ben Bernanke’s creativity inspired a generation of economists and central bankers. QE, ZIRP and NIRP established a new class of economics that is mathematically sound but practically disastrous. Billions of dollars were transferred from savers to investors to boost the economy, but the wizards of quant forgot that something has to give. In this case, it was the formation of a pension crisis that threatens the golden...

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UK Election: More Political Volatility

Pound weakness underlines the Conservative Party failing to secure the expected Brexit mandate. Exit polls from the UK general election point to the Conservatives winning just 316 seats, down from their pre-election 330 seats. The Labour Party could win 265 seats, up from 231 before the election....

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On Publishing and Cost Benefit Analysis

On his blog, Gilles Saint-Paul comments on the publication process in economics. Of course I was wrong in all accounts. The publication process in economics is not a publication process, it is a validation process by which we acquire a certain rank in a certain pecking order. Submitting a paper to a journal has nothing to do with research dissemination, it is far more similar to taking an exam or participating in a sports competition. The actual dissemination takes place mostly orally, in...

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A Problem Emerges: Central Banks Injected A Record $1 Trillion In 2017… It’s Not Enough

 Two weeks ago Bank of America caused a stir when it calculated that central banks (mostly the ECB & BoJ) have bought $1 trillion of financial assets just in the first four months of 2017, which amounts to $3.6 trillion annualized, “the largest CB buying on record.”  Aggregate Balance Sheet Of Large Central Banks, 2000 - 2017 - Click to enlarge BofA’s Michael Hartnett noted that supersized central bank...

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