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Hedge funds: looking ahead

Summary:
Macroview Tactical trading hedge funds are known for their long term decorrelation with traditional assets. After a news-heavy year so far, markets are gearing up for further volatility. Increased uncertainty and volatility offers opportunities for tactical traders, providing a differentiated source of returns. It has been a bumpy start to 2016. Amid sharp sell-offs on financial markets, it may seem that there is no place to hide. However, certain hedge fund managers think otherwise. For global macro funds, divergent monetary policies and economic dislocations may offer unique trading opportunities. Indeed, events in January provide a good illustration of the accretive potential of tactical traders in such an environment. While equity markets dipped, global macro managers offered on average downside protection, reporting flat or even positive returns. Commodity Trading Advisors (CTA) funds, meanwhile, enjoyed solid positive performances. Long USD and short commodities continued to feature among the major drivers of performance for tactical traders. However, despite the opportunities, the underlying risks are high. Trend reversals can be painful, especially for CTAs—many of which suffered, for example, from the euro rally in December at a time when short EUR was a popular trade.

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Tactical trading hedge funds are known for their long term decorrelation with traditional assets.

After a news-heavy year so far, markets are gearing up for further volatility. Increased uncertainty and volatility offers opportunities for tactical traders, providing a differentiated source of returns.

  • It has been a bumpy start to 2016. Amid sharp sell-offs on financial markets, it may seem that there is no place to hide. However, certain hedge fund managers think otherwise.
  • For global macro funds, divergent monetary policies and economic dislocations may offer unique trading opportunities.
  • Indeed, events in January provide a good illustration of the accretive potential of tactical traders in such an environment. While equity markets dipped, global macro managers offered on average downside protection, reporting flat or even positive returns. Commodity Trading Advisors (CTA) funds, meanwhile, enjoyed solid positive performances. Long USD and short commodities continued to feature among the major drivers of performance for tactical traders.
  • However, despite the opportunities, the underlying risks are high. Trend reversals can be painful, especially for CTAs—many of which suffered, for example, from the euro rally in December at a time when short EUR was a popular trade.
  • Current conditions could promote defensive positioning, favouring managers with convex portfolios and diversified trading models, as well as the ability to be nimble in shifting their risk allocation on a tactical basis.
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