SNB & CHF

The price of this “solution”–the undermining of the financial system–will eventually be paid in full. The financial storm clouds are gathering, and no, I’m not talking about impeachment or the Fed and repo troubles–I’m talking about much more serious structural issues, issues that cannot possibly be fixed within the existing financial system. Yes, I’m talking about the cost structure of our society: earned income has stagnated while costs have soared, and households...

Engaged in one of those protectionist trade spats people have been talking about, the flow of goods between South Korea and Japan has been choked off. The specific national reasons for the dispute are immaterial. As trade falls off everywhere, countries are increasingly looking to protect their own. Nothing new, this is a feature of when prolonged stagnation turns to outright contraction. While the dispute with Japan hasn’t helped, it isn’t responsible for the level...

© Ginasanders | Dreamstime.com Every year, Switzerland’s Federal Office of Public Health (FOPH) gives projections of compulsory health insurance premiums for the coming year. After years of rising premiums, many will be relieved by the small projected increases for 2020. Across all of Switzerland, the average premium is expected to rise 0.2% to CHF 315.40 a month. On average, adults will pay CHF 374.40 (+0.3%), young adults (19-25) CHF 265.30 (-2.0%) and children CHF...

Deutsche bank analysts suggest that at current spot levels, risk-reward favours longs in EUR/CHF. Key Quotes “While Brexit and trade war outcomes look like coin tosses, the impact is likely to be asymmetric as the SNB caps the left tail. While a relief rally would be fully accommodated, they would likely intervene heavily and cut the policy rate in the event of no deal.” “Last week’s change to the tiering system prepared the ground for emergency rate cuts by...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.03% to 1.0874 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, September 24(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: A fragile calm hangs over the capital markets today. Equities in Asia Pacific were narrowly mixed. Japan, China, and HK advanced. India saw some profit-taking after a two-day surge in response to the unexpected corporate tax cuts but recovered in late dealings. European shares are...

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Something happened in the credit market this week. A Barron’s article about it began: “There have been disruptions in the plumbing of U.S. markets this week. While the process of fixing them was bumpy, it was more of a technical mishap than a cause for investor concern.” Keep Calm and Carry On So, before they tell us what happened, they tell us it’s just plumbing, it’s been fixed, and that we should not be concerned. The article asserts that the reasons for the...

We have argued that the road to an orderly Brexit remains arduous and that sterling had entered an important technical area ($1.2500-$1.2530). At the same time, see the dollar as having approached the upper end of its broad trading range against the yen. One of the important drivers lifting the dollar was the dramatic rise in US yields. We thought that move is counter trend and that yields are headed lower again. These views could be expressed in a short-sterling...

Mario Draghi can thank Jay Powell at his retirement party. The latter being so inept as to allow federal funds, of all things, to take hold of global financial attention, everyone quickly shifted and forgot what a mess the ECB’s QE restart had been. But it’s not really one or the other, is it? Once it actually finishes, the takeaway from all of September should be the world’s two most important central banks each botching their “accommodations.” It’s only a little...