SNB & CHF

With the UST yield curve currently undergoing its own market-based twist, it’s worth investigating a couple potential reasons for it. On the one hand, the long end, clear cut reflation: markets are not, as is commonly told right now, pricing 1979 Great Inflation #2, rather how the next few years may not be as bad (deflationary) as once thought a few months ago. On the other hand, over at the short end, yields are dropping toward zero again. This steepening isn’t...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.15% to 1.0875 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, February 22(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Higher interest rates, driven by inflation expectations, is forcing an adjustment to equity markets. The S&P 500 is poised to gap lower today following slides in the Asia Pacific region and Europe. Japanese and Taiwanese indices advanced by steep losses were seen in China, Hong...

Blaise Pascal was a brilliant mathematician, inventor of the calculating machine, and pioneer of probabilistic theory during the 17th century. His philosophical works were published posthumously under the title of Pensées. Although Pascal was not always devout, this final work laid out his defense of Christianity. For many years he surrounded himself with people dedicated to what he would later call diversion – which consisted of hunting, parties, and...

If you are interested in personal finance, you probably have come across the concept of emergency funds. An emergency fund is simply some money available directly that you can use for emergencies. Most people will advise you to get such an account. And they will insist heavily on this subject. It is an interesting subject since not everybody agrees on the importance of the emergency fund. Some people have an emergency fund that can cover one year of expenses. And...

Alle Studenten der Wirtschaftswissenschaften werden früher oder später mit der neoklassischen Standardanalyse des Wohlfahrtsverlusts durch Besteuerung konfrontiert. Dabei geht es nicht um die Klärung der Frage, wozu man die Steuereinnahmen des Staates verwenden sollte, sondern vielmehr darum, wie und wo der Staat besteuern sollte, damit es zu möglichst geringen Verzerrungen im Marktgefüge kommt – gewissermaßen so, dass es am wenigsten wehtut. Idealerweise sollte die...

Last week was only four days due to the President’s day holiday but it was eventful. The big news of the week was the  spike in interest rates, which according to the press reports I read, “came out of nowhere”. In other words, the writers couldn’t find an obvious cause for a 14 basis point rise in the 10 year Treasury note yield so they just chalked it up to mystery. Of course, anyone who’s been paying attention knows that rates have been rising for almost a year –...

A restaurant that has been shut in Geneva Keystone / Martial Trezzini Several cantons have called for restaurants to be re-opened a month earlier than the official nationwide plan presented by the government earlier this week. Canton Graubünden wants restaurants to open their terraces from March 1. The canton has done a lot to fight the pandemic with its mass testing pilot programme, its officials argue. “In the end the government will have to give some...

© Marekusz | Dreamstime.com Switzerland’s federal accounts ended 2020 with a record-breaking deficit of CHF 15.8 billion. The deficit was caused by the pandemic. An unexpected CHF 3.6 billion fall in revenue combined with net CHF 12.5 billion in largely unplanned expenses combined to take the overall result CHF 16.1 billion below the expected positive net result of CHF 0.3 billion to deliver a loss of CHF 15.8 billion for the year. Pandemic-related expenditure...

46.3 On the Economic Road to NothingGoodVilleRecent, low consumer price inflation readings combined with falling US Treasury Bill yields are cautionary sign posts that say this reflationary path may not be the road to recovery but a deflationary cul-de-sac. [Emil’s Summary] Having studied monetary policy for several years it was only natural that your podcaster spent considerable time contemplating the essential elements of fiction. Some experts say there are five...

The Covid-19 pandemic has disrupted transportation worldwide, sending shockwaves across supply chains, lowering demand and reducing revenue. Shipping and aviation especially experienced a steep financial decline. Companies have had to operate at limited capacity and growth prospects have dropped sharply. According to the World Trade Organization, global maritime trade volumes declined by approximately 10 percent in 2020. The International Civil Aviation...