by 46.3 On the Economic Road to NothingGoodVilleRecent, low consumer price inflation readings combined with falling US Treasury Bill yields are cautionary sign posts that say this reflationary path may not be the road to recovery but a deflationary cul-de-sac. [Emil’s Summary] Having studied monetary policy for several years it was only natural that your podcaster spent considerable time contemplating the essential elements of fiction. Some experts say there are five components to it; others put the tally at six, even eight! But at the core it has always been the three elements: plot, setting and character. Plot was perfected, in the Western tradition at least, in the late 16th century by Shakespeare with the 5-act dramatic structure. Setting, given short-shrift
Topics:
Jeffrey P. Snider considers the following as important: 5.) Alhambra Investments, bonds, commodities, currencies, economy, Eurodollar University, Featured, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Making Sense, Markets, newsletter, stocks
This could be interesting, too:
Eamonn Sheridan writes CHF traders note – Two Swiss National Bank speakers due Thursday, November 21
Charles Hugh Smith writes How Do We Fix the Collapse of Quality?
Marc Chandler writes Sterling and Gilts Pressed Lower by Firmer CPI
Michael Lebowitz writes Trump Tariffs Are Inflationary Claim The Experts
46.3 On the Economic Road to NothingGoodVille
Recent, low consumer price inflation readings combined with falling US Treasury Bill yields are cautionary sign posts that say this reflationary path may not be the road to recovery but a deflationary cul-de-sac.
[Emil’s Summary] Having studied monetary policy for several years it was only natural that your podcaster spent considerable time contemplating the essential elements of fiction. Some experts say there are five components to it; others put the tally at six, even eight! But at the core it has always been the three elements: plot, setting and character.
Plot was perfected, in the Western tradition at least, in the late 16th century by Shakespeare with the 5-act dramatic structure. Setting, given short-shrift for millennia, did not achieve co-equal status until the gothic novels of the mid-18th century. And character? Scholars point back 28 centuries to The Iliad: heroism, cowardice, pride, hubris – wrath. But the scholars are wrong. Character wasn’t perfected first, but last. Not until the 1980s action drama The A-Team did this element of fiction reach its zenith.
The American television masterpiece synthesized what the Great Books dared not imagine into the now classic quartet: Colonel John “Hannibal” Smith as the brains; Lieutenant Templeton “Faceman” Peck as the looks; Sergeant Bosco Baracus the muscle; Captain H.M. Murdock the wildcard. The casting blueprint can be observed most everywhere; in the arts, at the office; even family the dinner table. Central banking is no exception. In the role of the brains is Ben “Hannibal” Bernanke. The looks? Lady Lagarde. The muscle? Jay “Mad Dog” Powell. The wildcard? The audience will naturally point to Haruhiko Kuroda and, before January 28th, the audience would have been correct.
On that day Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, gave a speech extolling the virtues of the sovereign-bank-corporate nexus. That is technocrat-speak for the government-guaranteed private-bank loans to private enterprise. Schnabel endorsed these “crucial” national loan schemes and encouraged Europe’s capitals to continue them, warning any premature end would be “destabilising”. Put another way, the baton that represents the supervision of money creation, has been wrested away from Frankfurt and placed into the neatly manicured hands of politicians, seeking re-election.
The new wildcard is not Isabel Schnabel but the Euro Area member state. All 19 of them.
In this episode we touch upon 1980s television shows, like CHiPs and interbank clearing mechanisms, like CHIPS. Also, why are corporate elephants on the hunt for fast-moving gazelle enterprises? Why are these elephants being offered their own fiefdoms in Nevada? Lastly, a potpourri review of Jeff Snider’s recent writing.
———WHO———
Twitter: https://twitter.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/
Art: https://davidparkins.com/
Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, riding shotgun. Art by David Parkins. Podcast intro/outro is “City Lights, City Dreams” by Forever Sunset at Epidemic Sound.
———WHERE———
AlhambraTube: https://bit.ly/
Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn
Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN
Deezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPE
iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI
TuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2Z
Castro: https://bit.ly/30DMYza
Google: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48M
Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mY
Pandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3Qg
Breaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFO
Castbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQ
Podbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDgh
Stitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GB
PlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjV
Podchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwN
PocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdt
SoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfK
ListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pb
AmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2P
PodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr
———WHEN———
00:05 The Cautionary Tale of Undocumented Insanity: Japan, US inflation, recession, depression
07:11 Permanent Jobs, Permanent Job Losses: US consumer credit, student loan subsidies
12:26 Old Numbers Show Us Why There Will be New Checks: US productivity
16:51 Upcoming Bill Cliff Refunding Recalls Rerun Reverse Repo: US Treasury Bill yields falling
22:39 Summary of Jeff Snider’s outlook regarding this moment in the economic reflation
———WHAT———
The Cautionary Tale of Undocumented Insanity: https://bit.ly/
Permanent Jobs, Permanent Job Losses: https://bit.ly/37fgD47
Old Numbers Show Us Why There Will be New Checks: https://bit.ly/3b41FPM
Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wW
RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7
You Might Also Like
Weekly SNB Sight Deposits and Speculative Positions: SNB buying euros at high prices
2021-02-22
Update February 22 2021: SNB intervening. Sight Deposits have risen by +0.1 bn CHF, this means that the SNB is intervening and buying Euros and Dollars: The change is +0.1 bn. compared to last week.
Six Point Nine Times Two Equals What It Had In Twenty Fourteen
2020-11-17
It was a shock, total disbelief given how everyone, and I mean everyone, had penciled China in as the world’s go-to growth engine. If the global economy was ever going to get off the ground again following GFC1 more than a half a decade before, the Chinese had to get back to their precrisis “normal.”
Meanwhile, Outside Today’s DC
2020-11-05
With all eyes on Washington DC, today, everyone should instead be focused on Europe. As we’ve written for nearly three years now, for nearly three years Europe has been at the unfortunate forefront of Euro$ #4. We could argue about whether coming out of GFC2 back in March pushed everything into a Reflation #4 – possible – or if this is still just one three-yearlong squeeze of a global dollar shortage.
What’s Going On, And Why Late August?
2020-10-29
This isn’t about COVID. It’s been building since the end of August, a shift in mood, perception, and reality that began turning things several months before even then. With markets fickle yet again, a lot today, what’s going on here?
Monthly Macro Monitor – September 2020
2020-09-30
The economic data over the last month continued to improve but the breadth of improvement has narrowed. Additionally, while most of the economic data series are still improving, the rate of change, as Jeff pointed out recently, has slowed. I guess that isn’t that surprising as the initial phase of the recovery comes to an end.
Monthly Market Monitor – August 2020
2020-09-08
Many of the weak dollar trends I noted in June’s update have moderated – even as the dollar has weakened further. US stocks surged over the last month, with growth indices leaving their value counterparts in the dust…again.
Not This Again: Too Many Treasuries?
2020-08-27
Tomorrow, the Treasury Department is going to announce the results of its latest bond auction. A truly massive one, $47 billion are being offered of CAH4’s notes dated August 31, 2020, maturing out in August 31, 2027. In other words, the belly of the belly, the 7s.We’ve already seen them drop for two note auctions this week, both equally sizable.
Tags: Bonds,commodities,currencies,economy,Eurodollar University,Featured,Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy,Making Sense,Markets,newsletter,stocks