Tag Archives: USD

EUR/CHF The massive surprise in the US job report was reflected in currency rates. The EUR/CHF surprisingly increased, despite weak US data. This reflects the fact that the ECB is currently considered the most dovish central bank.Consequently the biggest short speculative position is in the euro, while traders are long CHF against USD. Click to expand USD/CHF After a relatively steady week, the dollar lost 130 bips on Friday. Click to expand Continued by Marc Chandler:...

Surprise NFP visible in FX rates The massive surprise in the US job report was reflected in currency rates. The EUR/CHF surprisingly increased, despite weak US data. This reflects the fact that the ECB is currently considered the most dovish central bank.Consequently the biggest short speculative position is in the euro, while traders are long CHF against USD. The dollar lost 2% against the yen, 1.6% against the euro and 1.3% vs. the Swiss franc. Click to enlarge. Longer term...

The US dollar remains under pressure.  It is off for the third day against the yen and slipped below JPY109 for the first time in a little more than two weeks.  The Nikkei struggled to cope with the foreign exchange developments, lost 2.3%, the most in a month, after gapping lower.  At JPY108.50, the dollar would have given back 50% of its rally off the May 3 low near JPY105.50.   Below there, the JPY107.80 is the 61.8% retracement.   The euro is north of $1.12 after having briefly...

The US dollar is trading with a heavier bias to start the month of June.  Weaker stocks and firmer bonds has seen the yen rise the most, while sterling’s losses have been extended after an ICM telephone survey showed a small lead for those favoring Brexit.   The Swiss Franc was one of the strongest performers. Click to enlarge. The Nikkei fell 1.6%, the largest loss since May 2 and snaps a five-day advance.    The delay in the sales tax was confirmed.  This second delay now puts...

The US dollar is broadly mixed.  The main narrative of increased prospects for a Fed hike in June or July has been pushed off center stage as the market reacts to local developments as investors await from US economic data.  Ostensibly the data will determine whether the Fed raises rates in June or July.  The Swiss Franc lost both against the dollar and versus the euro. Click to enlarge. On the other hand, despite the Fed’s data dependency, we argue that the determining factor is...

The US dollar bottomed against nearly all the major currencies on May 3.  The hawkish April FOMC minutes that began swaying opinion about the prospects for a summer rate hike were not published until two weeks later, and the confirmation by NY Fed President Dudley was not until May 19.  Nevertheless, the shift in expectations for a resumption of the Fed’s gradual normalization of monetary policy is a potent force that has fueled the greenback’s recovery.  The place to look for investors’...

The US dollar bottomed against nearly all the major currencies on May 3.  The hawkish April FOMC minutes that began swaying opinion about the prospects for a summer rate hike were not published until two weeks later, and the confirmation by NY Fed President Dudley was not until May 19.  Nevertheless, the shift in expectations for a resumption of the Fed’s gradual normalization of monetary policy is a potent force that has fueled the greenback’s recovery.  The place to look for investors’...

EUR/CHF The EUR/CHF moves lower, following the descent of  EUR/USD. This happens often, when European and global growth is sluggish. USD/CHF But the Swiss franc weakened against the dollar. Continued by Marc Chandler: The US dollar was mostly firmer over the past week.   There were two exceptions among the major currencies:  Sterling and the Canadian dollar.   GBP/USD Many linked sterling’s outperformance (+0.8%) to a growing sense that the UK will vote to remain in the EU,...

For various reasons, well beyond the scope of this short note, China has amassed huge industrial capacity, well beyond its ability to absorb.  In part, that is one of the challenges that the “One Belt One Road” addresses.  Export the spare capacity by building infrastructure, networking east and central Asia (included parts of the former Soviet Union and the Middle East. Even that long-term project does not appear sufficient to absorb the existing surplus capacity.  Many US and European...

The US dollar is winding down the week on a firm note, but still in a consolidative mode.  The euro and yen and Australian dollar are well within yesterday’s ranges while sterling and the Canadian dollar pushing through yesterday’s lows. Source Dukascopy  Asian shares were mostly higher, though Chinese markets closed with slight losses.  The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index rose (~0.7%) for a third session and secured a 2% gain for the week.    European bourses are seeing some profit-taking...