Tag Archives: newsletter

A couple of weeks ago the 10 year Treasury note yield rose 16 basis points in the course of 5 trading days. That move was driven by near term inflation fears as I discussed last week. Long term inflation expectations were and are well behaved. I wrote nearly 2000 words last week about that change in inflation expectations and I’m so glad you took the time to read it. And now you can forget it because over the next four days all but 2 basis points of the move in the...

© Sergey Timofeev | Dreamstime.com This week, 10,148 new cases of Covid-19 were reported in Switzerland, up 30% from the 7,818 recorded the week before. On a 7-day moving average basis, the number of daily new cases was 1,450. The number entering hospital with Covid-19 was stable. Over the last 7 days, 119 Covid-19 patients were admitted to hospital with Covid-19 compared to 150 during the prior 7 days. This week Covid-19 deaths were up. 31 deaths were recorded over...

The US dollar turned in a mixed performance last week but ended on a solid note.  The pre-weekend and month-end activity may have exaggerated the greenback's gains, but we suspect ahead of the FOMC meeting and the US jobs data that is the direction. Our understanding of the technical condition also favors a stronger dollar. The jump in Australian rates may help explain why the Aussie was the strongest of the majors (~0.75%).  However, the trajectory of monetary...

There were no surprises in today’s US GDP data. As expected, output sharply decelerated, modestly missing much-reduced expectations. The continuously compounded annual rate of change for Q3 2021 compared to Q2 was the tiniest bit less than 2% (1.99591%) given most recent expectations had been closer to 3%. It was only two months ago, mid-August, when the Blue Chip consensus pegged quarterly growth at better than 7%. Such a fast drop-off immediately brings up delta...

All value is subjective. But often, when an exchange is to be made, a numerical value is required. It’s a special kind of economic calculation, what Bharat Kanodia terms “a subjective opinion based on objective facts”. Bharat has built a career on valuations, from 2-founder garage start-ups to the Eiffel Tower. He shares his knowledge, experience, and insights with the Economics For Business podcast. Key Takeaways And Actionable Insights Valuations start with a...

© Dreamstime.com Last weekend, several thousand protestors assembled outside the Federal Palace in Bern to voice their opposition to Switzerland’s response to the Covid-19 pandemic, reported Tribune de Genève. The protest is likely to be the last one authorised in the city ahead of a vote on 28 November 2021 to reverse laws introduced by the Swiss government to manage the pandemic. According to reports at the scene published in various Swiss newspapers the protest...

Der Kurs crashte kurzfristig auf 58.000 US-Dollar. Nach der Rallye auf ein neues Allzeithoch kam es schließlich zum unausweichlichen Flashsale. Daytrader und vermutlich auch einige Whales haben ihre Bitcoin abgestoßen, um die Gewinne aus der Rallye abzukassieren. Doch es dauerte nicht lange, bis sich der Kurs erholte. Bitcoin News: Bitcoin erholt sich sofort wieder von Flashsale CryptoQuant hat die Daten der letzten Stunden analysiert und fand heraus, dass es vor...

Nicholas Wapshott is a British journalist and biographer with a strong interest in economic theory. He says that the Nobel laureate Edmund Phelps is his mentor. One theme in twentieth-century economics dominates his work: the clash between economists who favor the free market and those who support a “mixed economy,” in which the government plays a large role. Wapshott’s earlier book Keynes Hayek shows the way he works. He uses the personal relations between Keynes...

Santa is generally a jolly fellow, but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t take pleasure in meting our well-deserved punishment to the greedy. Nothing is more predictable than a stock market rally starting in early November and running into mid-January–Santa’s rally. And since it’s so predictable, why not front-run the rally by loading up on stocks in October? Here’s the problem: Santa doesn’t take kindly to punters front-running his rally. It’s like opening your presents...

© Ginasanders | Dreamstime.com The latest forecast for 2021 shows a deficit of CHF 14.8 billion, down CHF 2.6 billion from an earlier forecast shortfall of CHF 17.4 billion. The deficit is driven mainly by the extraordinary cost of responding to the Covid-19 pandemic. The federal government expects to spend CHF 4.1 billion on vaccines (1.2) and tests (2.5) in 2021. However, the largest share of extra spending is on full and partial unemployment benefits (6.9)....