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In fiscal year 2014, which ended September 30 2014, the Federal government of the United States reported a cumulative deficit of US$484 billion, while the total debt outstanding increased by more than a trillion dollars. For fiscal year 2015, the difference was negligible because the US Treasury conducted so called emergency measures to adhere to the Congressional imposed debt ceiling. As soon as Congressional leaders agreed among themselves, the debt ceiling was raised and US debt...

In last week’s article, we explained how the yield curve could cause GDP to contract in The Yield Curve and GDP – a causal relationship. Some of our readers suggested the analysis was wrong on back of an outdated view of modern money creation. The critics claim modern banks are not dependent on central bank reserves to create additional money; citing a Bank of England article from 2014 (which we have been well aware of) [A] common misconception is that the central bank determines the...

Keith Weiner, chairman of the Gold Standard Institute United States, will be presenting in Zurich, this Wednesday, October 14 at 18.30. Title: Our Monetary System is Failing, and what we can do against it We hope that the Swiss National Bank will remain safe, during the collapse of the monetary system. We fear the collapse because money flows will direct towards Switzerland again and threaten the solvability of our central bank. Some background in English on the letter to Tsipras, in...

Over four years our association of supporters of Austrian Economics from Switzerland, Germany and Austria and helpful hands from all over the world expressed opposition against the CHF cap in in-numerous pages. Finally the SNB agreed to the wishes of Swiss consumers and gave up the cap that effectively represented a tax on consumption and extra-profits for companies and close friends of the central bank. Swiss Inflation Watch: Swiss inflation  As monetarists & Austrians we expect Swiss...

First week of February: Speculators are closing down their short positions on the euro– both against the dollar and against CHF. The carry trade is breaking down into a reverse carry trade. This leads to a strengthening of the euro versus CHF. Given that US data was better than expected, the speculative USD against CHF position should further augment. It was at 4600 contracts versus CHF.No SNB interventions: Sight deposits decreased slightly by 0.2 billion CHF, this implies that the SNB is...

Sehr geehrter Premierminister Alexis Tsipras, Zunächst herzlichen Glückwunsch zur neu gebildeten Regierung.Leider hat sich damit nicht viel geändert. Der Euro bietet seit langem Griechenland einen perversen Anreiz Geld zu leihen. Nun ist Ihr Land in der Schuldenfalle. Durch herkömmliche Mittel kann Griechenland nicht zurückzahlen. Je früher man diese einfache Tatsache anerkennt, desto besser. Die Troika droht die Kosten des Ausscheidens aus dem Euro zu maximieren. Sie kann den Zugang zu...

John Henry Smith of Grail Securities (Switzerland) shows that the financial markets have always been awash with its own brand of Sirens, who dolefully prophesied the complete collapse of whole economic systems. For him Pericles gave the best advice: “The key is not to predict the future, but to be prepared for it!” —————————————————————————————— In Homer’s Odyssey, the Sirens were dangerous and beautiful maidens, who irresistibly lured sailors with their enchanting, but sad, music and...

The Federal Reserve puts on a conference in the idyllic location of Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Of course it’s all about how best to centrally plan our little lives for us, and who is to be sacrificed to whom. The American Principles Project and the Atlas Network Sound Money Project, provided a much needed alternative in the Jackson Hole Summit. By choosing the same time and place as the Fed, Steve Lonegan capitalized on the publicity. In fact, the #jacksonholesummit hashtag was trending on...

Since the financial crisis central banks in developed nations increased their balance sheets. The leading one was the American Federal Reserve that increased the monetary base (M0, often called “narrow money”), followed by the Bank of Japan and recently the ECB. In most cases the extension of narrow money did neither have an effect on banks’ money supply, the so called “broad money” (M1-M3), nor on price inflation. For the Swiss, however, the rising money supply concerned both narrow and...

Swiss GDP increased by 0.2% q/q and 1.2% y/y. Once again, investments on equipment and software (+3.6%) was one of the main drivers. For many economists investment on equipment and software is the most desired GDP growth component. SECO: Gross domestic product in 2nd quarter 2015  (source)Each quarter, the Swiss department of economics (SECO) estimates the GDP and its components. The main purpose of these estimations is to provide data that allows for an assessment of the cyclical...