Tag Archives: newsletter

After the ECB's disappointment yesterday market nerves were shattered, but the largely as expected US jobs data may help the focus return to the underlying fundamental fact.  The ECB just eased policy.  Not as much as the market expected, and that speaks to market positioning, but it did ease.  And the 211k increase in November jobs, with the October series being revised up 27k to 298k,  Fed officials looking for more improvement in the labor market got it.   The unemployment rate was...

The only way to explain the largest swing in the euro in six years yesterday is to appreciate the disconnect between what was expected and what was delivered by the ECB.  Draghi's urgency and commitment to do "what it must" fanned expectations, and more importantly, substantial positions, in various asset classes--short euros, long European debt, and equities.  The washout was dramatic. Even though there was no promise by Draghi, there is nearly universal agreement that he over-promised and...

Market participants knew that volatility would rise today with the ECB meeting.  What they got was far worse than could have been anticipated.   It started with a report on the Financial Times a few minutes before the ECB's official announcement claiming, disappointingly, that there was no rate cut.  The euro took off, spiking to almost $1.07 from around $1.0550.  A few minutes later the ECB announced the ten bp cut in the deposit rate (to -30 bp).  The euro pulled back but then rallied...

The much anticipated ECB meeting is at hand.   Yesterday's disappointing eurozone CPI figures only fanned the anticipation. Today the service PMI was softer than expected at 54.2, down from 54.6.   What will Draghi do?  There are four moving parts.   The first is the deposit rate, which currently stands at -20 bp.  When first adopted in September 2014, that rate was said to be have exhausted the scope for interest rate policy.  Of course, we know factually it is not because other...

Defying the expectations a few months ago, Greece remained in the Economic and Monetary Union.  It recently succeeded in implementing sufficient reforms to earn another tranche of aid.   However, the entire exercise exhausted whatever trust there may have been.  It has also further soured Greece's attitude toward the EU. This leaves officials ill-prepared to deal with other issues.   The refugee challenge is such an issue.  The Financial Times reported that some EU officials are...

The anticipation is nearly over.  The softer than expected preliminary EMU inflation figures encourages expectations for the more aggressive range of actions by the ECB tomorrow.  Draghi has claimed that movement toward the inflation target was too slow.  Today's data showed a 0.1% increase year-over-year in the headline rate.  The market had anticipated a 0.2% increase.  Although the ECB targets headline inflation, it clearly also tracks core inflation.  Core price increases slowed to...

Canada reported its monthly GDP estimate for September, and at the same time, provided its first estimate of Q3 GDP.   The Great Graphic, created on Bloomberg, shows both time series. The monthly GDP is depicted by the yellow line and the quarterly estimate is the white line.  Clearly they track each other, as one would expected.   The good news is that after contracting in the first two quarters of the year, the Canadian economy expanded by 2.3% in Q3. The bad news is that the growth...

(Here is a draft of a monthly column I write for a Chinese paper) It is official.  The Chinese yuan will be in the SDR.  At a 10.4% share, it is a bit more than I expected, but less than the 14%-16% share that the IMF staff has intimated a few months ago.  This is a significant event, even if there is no short-term market opportunity.   The yuan’s exchange rate against the dollar has steadily declined over the month of November contrary to conspiracy theories that warned Chinese...

(Here is a draft of a monthly column I write for a Chinese paper) It is official.  The Chinese yuan will be in the SDR.  At a 10.4% share, it is a bit more than I expected, but less than the 14%-16% share that the IMF staff has intimated a few months ago.  This is a significant event, even if there is no short-term market opportunity.   The yuan’s exchange rate against the dollar has steadily declined over the month of November contrary to conspiracy theories that warned Chinese...

The US dollar is trading with a heavier bias today amid some last minute position squaring ahead of the key events of the week, which are stacked in the second half.  The ECB meeting and US jobs data are the two most important events in a jam packed week for most participants.   The recent pattern has been for new lows in the euro to be greeted with a bit of profit-taking.  This pattern is holding.  New lows were made yesterday just below $1.0560, and short-covering lifted it to nearly...