Tag Archives: newsletter

  Mr. X and his Mysterious Benefactors A recent photograph of Mr. X. Photo credit; Peter Foley / Bloomberg via Getty Images As the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) reports, a money-laundering alarm was triggered at AmBank in Malaysia, a bank part-owned by one of Australia’s “big four” banks, ANZ. What had triggered the alarm? Money had poured into the personal account of one of the bank’s customers, a certain Mr. X, in truly staggering amounts. Hundreds of millions of dollars...

A Return to Gold Sorry boys and girls, you’ll have to start without us… Photo credit: Susan Candelario BUENOS AIRES, Argentina ­– “What if you were appointed to head the Fed? In your first week on the job, what would you do?” The question was not exactly serious. Neither was the answer. “We’d call in sick.” Drought, old age, traffic congestion, meanness, purple drink, bad taste, rap, suburbs, cancer, government, Hillary Clinton, restaurant music, shorts, Facebook, obesity – there are a...

Every so often there is a market move that appears inexplicable.  The conundrum now is the yen’s strength.  Of course, there are numerous attempts to shed light on the yen’s rise, but many, like ourselves, are not very satisfied. Perhaps part of the problem is that many participants are looking for a single narrative that explains why the dollar peaked against the yen last June near JPY125.85 and fell to almost JPY107.60 yesterday.   However, closer inspection suggests the dollar’s...

There is a common ploy used by many analysts and reporters that often simply does not stand up to close scrutiny, and would in fact be mocked in the university.   The ploy is to take two time series and put them on the same chart but use different scales. Such a ploy often is used to demonstrate a closer relationship between the two variables than is actually the case.  A current example is a chart of the dollar-yen rate and Japanese stocks. Here is a Great Graphic that was in the...

There are three highlights to the foreign exchange market today.  First, the yen is marginally softer.  The yen's strength this month has been the main development.  After making a marginal new high yesterday, some semblance of stability emerged in North America yesterday, and this has carried over into today's activity.   The greenback largely held above JPY107.90 and rose to JPY108.40 in late Asia.  It has been consolidating in the European morning.  Japan's Finance Minister appeared...

  No Correction Yet Photo via Museo del Oro / Bogota Late last week the HUI Index broke out to new highs for the move, and so did the XAU (albeit barely, so it did not really confirm the HUI’s breakout as of Friday). Given that gold itself has not yet broken out to a new high for the move, it would normally be expected to do so, as Jordan Roy-Byrne argues here. The chart below shows the situation as of Friday (HUI, HUI-gold ratio and gold): The HUI and the HUI-gold ratio have broken...

  A Rara Avis – The World Is Poorer Without Him In It Dr. Tibor Machan, libertarian philosopher Our friend Dr. Tibor Machan, a greatly valued contributor to this site, has passed away on March 24. Unfortunately, we haven’t known Tibor for very long. We got into touch with him after reading some of his work at Mises.org and the Daily Bell, and asked him if he would like to occasionally publish articles on Acting Man as well. To our delight, he immediately agreed. In the time we were in...

It’s official, I’m calling a banking crisis in Europe. Things didn’t go well the last time I did this. Of course, many will say, “But the rating agencies have learned their collective lessons. They would most assuredely warn us if the European banks are close to going bust, right?!!!”. Yeah, right! Reference our past research note on so-called trusted parties in private blockchains for banks. Those interested in purchasing the 22 page report on what is likely the first major bank to fall...

Tricky and Dangerous Assumptions A metallic conspirator and his flying factotum… Image via sceptic.com For at least a few weeks now, we have noticed a growing drumbeat from a growing corps of analysts. Gold is going to thousands of dollars. And silver is going to outperform. Reasons given are myriad. Goldman Sachs apparently said to short gold, so if one assumes that the bank always advises clients to take the other side of its trades — a tricky and dangerous assumption at best — then...

  The Hard Rocks of Real Life Photo credit: Andrei Shumskiy BALTIMORE – The Dow dropped 174 points on Thursday, the biggest fall in six weeks. Not the end of the world. Maybe not even the end of this year’s bounce-back bull run. As you’ll recall, stocks sold off at the beginning of the year, too. Then, investors were buoyed up after central banks got to work – jimmying the credit market on their behalf. The Fed swore off any further “normalization” until later in the year. Central banks...