Tag Archives: newsletter

The market's focus has shifted to the two-day FOMC meeting that begins today.  The Federal Reserve should be pleased with recent developments.  Labor market slack continues to be absorbed.  Core inflation measures continue to edge higher.   Market-based measures of inflation expectations have risen, and the 10-year breakeven is a little above levels that prevailed before the December FOMC meeting.  The volatility in the capital markets that characterized the first six weeks of the year...

The US dollar is steady to firmer against most of the major and emerging market currencies.  Equity markets are heavier, and oil continues to surrender some of its recent gains.  Profit-taking is weighing on eurozone bonds and JGBs while US Treasuries and UK gilts are firmer.   The main exception to the firmer dollar is the Japanese yen.  The Bank of Japan left policy unchanged, as widely anticipated.  Its assessment was seen as somewhat less dovish than many expected.  While...

The price of oil is seeing its biggest decline today since February 23.   The ostensible reason is that Iran once again reiterated it would only consider capping its output after it reached four million barrels a day, its pre-sanction output.  Last month, the Saudis and Russia (joined by Venezuela and Qatar) indicated they were prepared to freeze output on the condition that the Iranians (and others would join).  It was clear that the Iranians could not and would not join.  Iran had just...

The introduction of negative interest rates in Japan and the subsequent chance for yields has seen domestic investors move further out on the curve.  They have also stepped up their purchases of foreign bonds.  In three weeks (through March 4) since the negative deposit rate went into effect, Japanese investors bought JPY4.4 trillion of foreign bonds.  This is the second most since at least 2001 (when Bloomberg's time series began), trailing slightly behind the August 2010 flurry. In the...

The US dollar is firmer but largely confined to the ranges seen before the weekend against most of the major currencies.  The yen is also firmer as dollar sellers reemerged near JPY114.00.    The dollar is gaining against most emerging market currencies, though Asian currencies, notably the Korean Won, are firmer.  Although emerging market currencies and commodities are heavier, global equities are continuing their advance since bottoming February 11-12.  Even disappointing industrial...

14.03.2016 09:15  - FSO, Economic structure and analyses (0353-1600-90) Women and Science 2015 Under-representation of women in science greater in Switzerland than in Europe Neuchâtel, 14.03.2016 (FSO) – In Switzerland, women are outnumbered by men in the field of science and research, especially in academic careers. Only 18% of directors of higher education institutions are women. Furthermore, their participation in public and private research (for all economic sectors) is often below the...

On the week, the prices of the metals didn’t move all that much. However, the move around 6am (Arizona time) on Thursday is notable. The price of silver spiked up from around $15.12 to $15.64—3.4%—by around 8am. Twelve hours later, the price touched $15.73 before sliding off. We are always interested in the fundamentals, as we watch price moves. The question is always: is this speculators, betting with leverage on the silver price using futures? Or is it industrial or stacker demand for...

EM enjoyed an extended rally last week, and it should carry over to the early part of the week. The Wednesday FOMC meeting poses a risk to EM, especially if markets continue to price in a more hawkish Fed. The dot plots and press conference will be very important. BOE and the Norges Bank also meet this week, with the latter expected to deliver a 25 bp rate cut to 0.5%. Firm commodity prices are helping sentiment, with WTI making new highs for 2016 and approaching the $40 area. While weaker...

Each week we will publish the best articles by Marc Meyer, one of the most critical voices against the SNB.This post explains 3 points: That the SNB does not understand what assets and liabilities are – and due to this misunderstanding – it speculates with massive leverage. The difference between good and bad deflation, and that Switzerland has good deflation. That both the SNB and the Swiss government do what some Swiss exporters want. Therefore, the formerly admired central bank...

Fixed exchange rates limit the degrees of freedom for policymakers.  The breakdown of Bretton Woods in 1971 removed this constraint on official action, and the results were larger budget deficit and higher inflation.  The zero bound on interest rates also posed a constraint on behavior. Until this year, despite the long struggle against deflation, the Bank of Japan never instituted a negative policy rate.  Since the early days of the Great Financial Crisis, some had warned of limits of...