Tag Archives: newsletter

EM ended last week on a soft note.  The icing on the cake was Yellen’s speech Friday afternoon, which confirmed the more hawkish stance seen in the FOMC minutes and other recent official comments.  We warn that with the FOMC meeting and Brexit vote next month, markets are likely to remain volatile and that risk assets (such as EM) are the most vulnerable. Looking at country-specific EM risk, the Brazilian political outlook remains murky as more reports have surfaced of other PMDB officials...

Several months ago, as Venezuela’s hyperinflating, imploding economy was spinning in freefall, leading to the dramatic episodes of total social collapse such as those profiled in “Scenes From The Venezuela Apocalypse: “Countless Wounded” After 5,000 Loot Supermarket Looking For Food“, we wrote that the country which recently had “run out of money to print its own money” was preparing to liquidate its remaining gold holdings to pay coming debt maturities. Then, courtesy of an analysis by...

The US dollar bottomed against nearly all the major currencies on May 3.  The hawkish April FOMC minutes that began swaying opinion about the prospects for a summer rate hike were not published until two weeks later, and the confirmation by NY Fed President Dudley was not until May 19.  Nevertheless, the shift in expectations for a resumption of the Fed’s gradual normalization of monetary policy is a potent force that has fueled the greenback’s recovery.  The place to look for investors’...

Speculators remain Long CHF against USD. The figure is  nearly unchanged at 4.0 k CHF contracts. For CHF, both shorts and longs increased.This weeks major change was in the yen and in AUD. Speculators strongly reduced their longs. Yen and Aussie There were only two significant speculative position adjustments in the latest CFTC reporting week ending May 24.  Speculators liquidated 31.4k gross long yen contracts, leaving the bulls with 54.8k contracts.  It is the largest weekly...

EUR/CHF The EUR/CHF moves lower, following the descent of  EUR/USD. This happens often, when European and global growth is sluggish. USD/CHF But the Swiss franc weakened against the dollar. Continued by Marc Chandler: The US dollar was mostly firmer over the past week.   There were two exceptions among the major currencies:  Sterling and the Canadian dollar.   GBP/USD Many linked sterling’s outperformance (+0.8%) to a growing sense that the UK will vote to remain in the EU,...

Image credit: Tesla Motors Tesla Goes Fishing Tesla Motors is up to something remarkable.  But what it is, exactly, is unclear.  According to the Tesla Motors website, the company’s mission is: to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable transport. Tesla Model 3: the company’s first “mass market” entry so to speak, which is supposed to help the world to reach the nirvana of  “sustainable” transport. On the side, it is helping a number of Wall Street firms to increase their...

Geniuses in Charge BALTIMORE, Maryland – Is there any smarter group of homo sapiens on the planet? Or in all of history? We’re talking about Fed economists, of course. Not only did they avoid another Great Depression by bold absurdity…giving the economy more of the one thing of which it clearly had too much – debt. They also carefully monitored the economy’s progress so as to avoid any backsliding into normalcy. And where do we get this penetrating appraisal? From the Fed economists...

For various reasons, well beyond the scope of this short note, China has amassed huge industrial capacity, well beyond its ability to absorb.  In part, that is one of the challenges that the “One Belt One Road” addresses.  Export the spare capacity by building infrastructure, networking east and central Asia (included parts of the former Soviet Union and the Middle East. Even that long-term project does not appear sufficient to absorb the existing surplus capacity.  Many US and European...

Korea will extend trading hours for stock and FX markets by 30 minutes effective August 1 The Monetary Authority of Singapore said it will withdraw BSI Bank’s license for breaches of money-laundering rules The US lifted a decades-old arms embargo on Vietnam The Nigerian central bank said it would allow “greater flexibility” in the FX market Poland signaled a compromise over the judicial row that triggered EU scrutiny Brazil Budget Minister Romero Juca was forced to step down Banco de...

The US dollar is winding down the week on a firm note, but still in a consolidative mode.  The euro and yen and Australian dollar are well within yesterday’s ranges while sterling and the Canadian dollar pushing through yesterday’s lows. Source Dukascopy  Asian shares were mostly higher, though Chinese markets closed with slight losses.  The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index rose (~0.7%) for a third session and secured a 2% gain for the week.    European bourses are seeing some profit-taking...