Tag Archives: newsletter

A Well Known Seasonal Phenomenon in the US Market – Is There More to It? I already discussed the “turn-of-the-month effect” in a previous issues of Seasonal Insights, see e.g. this report from earlier this year. The term describes the fact that price gains in the stock market tend to cluster around the turn of the month. By contrast, the rest of the time around the middle of the month is typically less profitable for...

For all the talk about weaker economic momentum and low inflation in the euro area, we would not jump to conclusions in terms of ECB policy. True, downside risks have re-emerged over the past couple of months, generating understandable concerns and frustration in Frankfurt. However, the ECB is unlikely to respond unless those risks materialise, which is not our central case. If anything, the soft patch should only...

Swiss unemployment is at its lowest for 3.5 years, according to the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO). © Gpointstudio | Dreamstime.com - Click to enlarge The last time Swiss unemployment reached March 2018’s level was in October 2014. After reaching a peak of 3.7% in January 2017, the rate had fallen to 2.9% by March 2018. Unemployment has some seasonality however the rate for last March (2.9%) is...

– Global debt bubble hits new all time high – over $237 trillion– Global debt increased 10% or $21 tn in 2017 to nearly a quarter quadrillion USD – Increase in debt equivalent to United States’ ballooning national debt – Global debt up $50 trillion in decade & over 327% of global GDP – $750 trillion of bank derivatives means global debt over $1 quadrillion – Gold will be ‘store of value’ in coming economic...

Anyone accepting “facts” or narratives from any interested party is being played. About the only “fact” the public knows with any verifiable certainty about Syria is that much of that nation is in ruins. Virtually everything else presented as “fact” is propaganda intended to serve one of the competing narratives or discredit one or more competing narratives. Consider a partial list of “interested parties” spinning their...

A “Typical” Correction? A Narrative Fail May Be in Store Obviously, assorted crash analogs have by now gone out of the window – we already noted that the market was late if it was to continue to mimic them, as the decline would have had to accelerate in the last week of March to remain in compliance with the “official time table”. Of course crashes are always very low probability events – but there are occasions when...

The Royal Penthouse Suite at Geneva's President Wilson Hotel is reputedly the most expensive holiday room in the world. (Keystone) - Click to enlarge Staying in a hotel in Geneva costs more than anywhere else in Europe, according to an international survey. The €242.90 (CHF288 or $300) average charge per night puts Geneva ahead of Paris (€232.30), while Zurich is listed as the third most expensive...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.29% to 1.1914 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, April 17(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates After the retreating in the North American session yesterday, despite a rebound in retail sales after three-months of declines, the greenback has been sold further in Europe and Asia. The euro edged through last week’s high near $1.24, and...

Renowned cryptographer Philip Zimmermann, who moved his smartphone encryption firm Silent Circle to Switzerland four years ago, has signed up to the metals-backed crypto Tiberius Coin venture as chief science and security officer. Zimmermann, who was inducted into the Internet Hall of Fame by the Internet Society in 2012, came to Switzerland to further develop his anti-snooping Blackphone away from invasive...

The monetary distortions, imbalances and perverse incentives are finally bearing fruit: trade wars. What ignites trade wars? The oft-cited sources include unfair trade practices and big trade deficits. But since these have been in place for decades, they don’t explain why trade wars are igniting now. To truly understand why trade wars are igniting and spreading, we need to start with financial repression, a catch-all...