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Retail sales estimates are not adjusted for inflation, but even so whenever they get down toward the 3% growth level you can be sure there is serious economic trouble. The 6-month average for overall retail sales dropped below 3% in March 2001, the month that marked the start of the official dot-com recession (though that is not the official name for the cyclical peak, it probably should be). They would remain near or...

Discover new 20 and 50-franc notes on mobile devices The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is releasing an app for mobile devices, designed to help the public familiarise themselves with the new banknotes. The app – an updated version of the ‘50-franc’ app launched last year to accompany the issue of the new 50-franc note – is now called ‘Swiss Banknotes’ and can be downloaded free of charge from the Apple (itunes.apple.com)...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, May 17(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ). GBP/CHF Inflation data weakens Sterling. Yesterday saw the release of Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. CPI is a measure of inflation and yesterday we saw a rise from 2.3% to 2.7% month on month. Usually a rise in inflation is deemed as good for an economy, but on this occasion it is a worrying sign. The rapid rise is a direct result of the...

I was on Bloomberg’s Day Break with the team and guest Anne Lester from JP Morgan discussing oil and inflation. Oil prices had bounced back at the end of last week and were lifted further on news that Saudi Arabia and Russia were inclined to support extending output cuts not just until the end of the year, but through Q1 18. I make two points. First, that US yields seem to be largely decoupled from the oil prices. This...

UN experts estimate pesticides cause 200,000 deaths a year, 99% of which occur in developing countries (Keystone) In the wake of a Chinese takeover of the Swiss agribusiness group Syngenta, a Swiss advocacy group raises concerns about Switzerland’s regulatory role. Switzerland exports two powerful herbicides, atrazine and paraquat, to developing countries. However, these products, manufactured by Basel giant Syngenta,...

  Correlation vs. Causation A very good visual correlation between the yearly percentage change in the consumer price index (CPI) and the yearly percentage change in the price of oil seems to provide support to the popular thinking that future changes in price inflation in the US are likely to be set by the yearly growth rate in the price of oil (see first chart below). Gushing forth… a Union Oil Co. oil well sometime...

China’s trade statistics for April 2017 uniformly disappointed. They only did so, however, because expectations are being calibrated as if the current economy is actually different. It is instead merely swinging between bouts of contraction and low-grade growth, but so low-grade it really doesn’t qualify as growth. Positive numbers do get the mind racing, but since the end of 2011 there is almost a speed limit on how...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, May 16(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge FX Rates Dollar selling pressure emerged at the end of last week, partly in response to disappointing US economic data. This selling pressure carried over into yesterday’s activity. It appeared to have been trying to stabilize yesterday in the North American session. News that President Trump may have shared...

Switzerland will receive most of the money paid by the German state of North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) to a man who provided the state with stolen Credit Suisse client data, it has been confirmed. The CDs of stolen data and now the spy affair have tested German-Swiss relations - Click to enlarge NRW’s finance ministry paid €2.5 million (CHF2.7 million) in February 2010 for the CD, which contained tax details of Credit...

Headlines Week May 15, 2017 The pro-European politician Macron has won the French elections. He is a politician that – similar to Hollande four years ago – promises economic improvements, more investment, more jobs. As opposed to Hollande, he also advocates limitations on salaries and less social protection for workers, to restore France’s competitiveness. Mostly probably he will fail – similar to his predecessor...