Tag Archives: newsletter

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity gains, while the REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners. Who has read Michael Pettis, knows that a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.17% to 1.1477 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, September 21(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The market has mostly interpreted the Fed’s action in line with our thinking. Despite the lowering of the long-run Fed funds rate, the shifting one of the three hikes from 2019 into 2020, and recognizing that the weaker price impulses...

In an extensive, must-read report published on Monday by Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid, the credit strategist unveiled an extensive analysis of the “Next Financial Crisis”, and specifically what may cause it, when it may happen, and how the world could respond assuming it still has means to counteract the next economic and financial crash.In our first take on the report yesterday, we showed one key aspect of the “crash”...

 All the way back in January I calculated the total size of China’s 2016 fiscal “stimulus.” Starting in January 2016, authorities conducted what was an enormous spending program. As it had twice before, the government directed increased “investment” from State-owned Enterprises (SOE).By my back-of-the-envelope numbers, the scale of this fiscal side program was about RMB 1.45 trillion, or nearly 2% of GDP. It was about...

In confirmation that Theresa May’s upcoming Florence speech this Friday is not only what many have called “the most important day for Brexit since the referendum”, but also the most opaque, the Telegraph reports that UK Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson will resign as before the weekend if Theresa May veers towards a “Swiss-style” arrangement with the EU in her upcoming speech. The Foreign Secretary believes he will have...

See the introduction and the video for the terms gold basis, co-basis, backwardation and contango. Back to the Happy Place Amid a Falling Dollar The prices of the metals dropped this week, $24 and $0.38. This could be because the asset markets have returned to their happy, happy place where every day the stock market ticks up relentlessly. Sometimes, happiness is fleeting… - Click to enlarge Dollar Bid Price The...

New Zealand holds elections at end the of next week as well. While the German contest does not appear close and the odds on the most likely scenario are a return of the Grand Coalition, in New Zealand, the center-right’s decade-long rule is being seriously challenged by a resurgent Labour Party. The New Zealand dollar fell by around 5.7% in August. The pullback was twice as deep and lasted twice as long the as the...

Swiss universities are known to be very international More than half of those doing a doctorate in Switzerland come from abroad, according to a new global education report. Foreign students are especially drawn to courses in the natural sciences. International students make up 17% of those studying at Swiss universities, said the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECDexternal link) in its Education...

A tragedy… get the hankies out! ? [PT] The Instability Problem Bitcoin is often promoted as the antidote to the madness of fiat irredeemable currencies. It is also promoted as their replacement. Bitcoin is promoted not only as money, but the future money, and our monetary future. In fact, it is not. Why not? To answer, let us start with a look at the incentives offered by bitcoin. We saw a comment this week, which is...

Princeton University economist Alan Krueger recently published and presented his paper for Brookings on the opioid crisis and its genesis. Having been declared a national emergency, there are as many economic as well as health issues related to the tragedy. Economists especially those at the Federal Reserve are keen to see this drug abuse as socio-demographic in nature so as to be absolved from failing in their primary...