Tag Archives: newsletter

Which Disturbance in the Farce can be Profitably Ignored Today? There has been some talk about submerging market turmoil recently and the term “contagion” has seen an unexpected revival in popularity – on Friday that is, which is an eternity ago. As we have pointed out previously, the action is no longer in line with the “synchronized global expansion” narrative, which means with respect to Wall Street that it is best...

Fourth banknote in latest series showcases Switzerland’s scientific expertise The Swiss National Bank (SNB) will begin issuing the new 200-franc note on 22 August 2018. Following the 50, 20 and 10-franc notes, this is the fourth of six denominations in the new banknote series to be released. The current eighth-series banknotes will remain legal tender until further notice. The inspiration behind the new banknote...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.09% to 1.1264. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 15(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The Turkish lira is extending yesterday’s recovery today on the back of actions by officials that are aimed at limiting foreign access to the lira to short. Without introducing new capital controls, regulators halved the amount of swap...

Travelling within cities is good value in Switzerland Using public transport infrequently in Switzerland is expensive, but thanks to new special offers such as “early bird” rates Switzerland does well when it comes to value for money, according to an international study. “Travelling by train, bus or boat is expensive in Switzerland,” is a common refrain among Swiss people – and especially tourists. But this is partially...

Nowadays, trade and “prosperity” are dependent on currencies that are created out of thin air via borrowing or printing. So here’s the story explaining why “free” trade and globalization create so much wonderful prosperity for all of us: I find a nation with cheap labor and no environmental laws anxious to give me cheap land and tax credits, so I move my factory from my high-cost, highly regulated nation to the low-cost...

Marc Chandler I had the opportunity to join Professor Hanke to discuss the crisis in Turkey. The professor sketched out his view expressed in a recent op-ed piece in the Wall Street Journal, arguing that Turkey is best served by adopting a currency board, anchoring the lira to hard currency, like the euro or dollar, or gold. I do not see Turkey’s problem being essentially a currency crisis, but a broader crisis of...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.41% to 1.1282. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 14(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Corrective pressures grip the capital markets today, helped by the easing of the selling pressure on Turkey, but its more a respite than a relief as no new policy initiatives are behind the lira’s upticks. The implication of this is that it...

The Producer Price Index (PPI) or officially named “Producer and Import Price Index” describes the changes in prices for producers and importers. For us it is interesting because it is used in the formula for the Real Effective Exchange Rate. When producers and importers profit on lower price changes when compared to other countries, then the Swiss Franc reduces its overvaluation. The Swiss PPI values of -6% in 2015...

The euro appears to have carved out head and shoulder top. As this Great Graphic depicts, the euro was sold through the neckline at the end of last week and is 1% below it today. It is not unusual for the neckline to be retested. It is found near $1.15. It also dovetails with our near-term caution given that the euro is likely to close below its Bollinger Band for the second consecutive session (~$1.1440). The left...

The Goldminbi In recent weeks gold apparently decided it would be a good time to masquerade as an emerging market currency and it started mirroring the Chinese yuan of all things. Since the latter is non-convertible this almost feels like an insult of sorts. As an aside to this, bitcoin seems to be frantically searching for a new position somewhere between the South African rand the Turkish lira. The bears are busy...