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I was in graduate school, studying American foreign policy when I stumbled on Riccardo Parboni’s “The Dollar and Its Rivals.” This thin volume showed how the foreign exchange market was the arena in which capitalist rivalries were expressed. More than any single book, it set me on a more than 30-year path. The dramatic world of foreign exchange that Parboni depicted changed in a significant way in the mid-1990s. Led by...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.12% at 1.1339 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, December 04(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Equity markets are unable to build on yesterday’s advance, but bonds and oil are extending gains. The dollar remains on the defensive and is off again all the major currencies. The lack of a joint statement over the weekend by the US...

Swiss Franc Coins - Click to enlarge In today’s GBP/CHF forecast we look at why the Pound has been coming under a huge amount of pressure recently against the Swiss Franc. Those that have been following the currency markets will be aware that the pressure on GBP is largely owing to the uncertainty caused by the ongoing Brexit talks. We are now just over a week away from arguably one of the biggest events in British...

04.12.2018 – The consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.3% in November 2018 compared with the previous month, reaching 101.8 points (December 2015 = 100). Inflation was 0.9% compared with the same month of the previous year. These are the results of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). The 0.3% drop compared with the previous month can be explained by several factors including falling prices for international package...

The downward revision to 3Q GDP will make the Italian government’s targets more difficult to achieve and complicate the budget debate with Europe. The Italian statistical office’s (ISTAT) final reading showed that the economy shrank 0.1% q-o-q (-0.5% q-o-q annualised) in Q3, whereas a preliminary reading on October 30 showed that growth was flat. The details were quite negative and confirmed the idiosyncrasy of the...

© Convisum | Dreamstime.com The latest figures show that Swiss salaries have not kept up with inflation. An average Swiss salary rose 0.4% in 2017, compared to inflation of 0.5%. This left the average salary earner 0.1% worse off in real terms over the year. The figures were the same for both the secondary and tertiary sectors. The rise in 2017 (+0.4%) was the same as 2016 (+0.4%) but less than 2015 (+0.5%) and 2014...

To be sure, the Dollar Index is not the dollar. It is not even a trade-weighted measure of the dollar. Two of America’s largest trading partners, China and Mexico, are not represented. It is heavily weighted to the euro and currencies that move in its orbit, like the Swiss franc Swedish krona, and arguably the British pound. It is primarily a speculative vehicle. Very few investors or businesses have exposure that...

By the time things got really bad, China’s economy had already been slowing for a long time. The currency spun out of control in August 2015, and then by November the Chinese central bank was in desperation mode. The PBOC had begun to peg SHIBOR because despite so much monetary “stimulus” in rate cuts and a lower RRR banks were hoarding RMB liquidity. Late 2015 was not a fun time in China. The idea of economic...

What is inflation? Any layman can tell you—and nearly everyone uses it this way in informal speech—that inflation is rising prices. Some will say “due to devaluation of the money.” Economists will say, no it’s not rising prices per se. That is everywhere and always the effect. The cause, the inflation as such, is an increase in the quantity of money. Which is the same thing as saying devaluation. It is assumed that each...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.14% at 1.1262 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, December 03(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The US and China kept their trade guns cocked at each other but offered the last opportunity for a negotiated settlement before escalation. What is billed as a 90-day freeze on tariff increases is really only 60 days beyond January 1...