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More policy support is expected, and may lead to slight rebound in Q4. China’s manufacturing PMIs softened further in September, indicating that growth momentum is likely continued to moderate in Q3 and that the weakness may extend into Q4. In response to the weakening growth momentum, especially in the context of escalating trade tensions with the US, the Chinese government has turned to policy easing since June. The...

We’re living in a fantasy, folks. Bubbles pop, period. The nice thing about the “wealth” generated by bubbles is it’s so easy: no need to earn wealth the hard way, by scrimping and saving capital and investing it wisely. Just sit back and let central bank stimulus push assets higher. The problem with bubble “wealth” is it’s like an addictive narcotic: now our entire pension system, public and private, is dependent on...

Costco This is a textbook case. Well, it would be if there was a textbook that presented the dynamics of the rising and falling interest rate cycles. Costco is spending over a quarter billion dollars, to make a capital investment in chicken processing. This is not the typical entrepreneurial investment, which seeks to increase margins by serving an unserved or underserved demand. This is an investment made with...

Hammering the Spread The price of gold fell nine bucks last week. However, the price of silver shot up 33 cents. Our central planners of credit (i.e., the Fed) raised short-term interest rates, and threatened to do it again in December. Meanwhile, the stock market continues to act as if investors do not understand the concepts of marginal debtor, zombie corporation, and net present value. People believe that the Fed...

Rows of vines in Valais, the canton at the heart of the Swiss wine-growing industry. Swiss agricultural production is up in 2018, driven largely by bigger hauls of wine, fruit and milk, according to the latest official statistics. Productivity is also on the rise. The yearly production estimate of CHF10.6 billion ($10.7 billion) released on Tuesday by the Federal Statistical Officeexternal link represents an increase of...

Bloomberg Clip from Discussion on Emerging Markets In my first television appearance since joining Bannockburn Global Forex, I joined Tom Keene and Francine Lacqua on the Bloomberg set. In this nearly 2.5 min clip, we talk about the Indonesia rupiah and the dollar’s move above the IDR15000 level for the first time since the 1997-1998 Asian financial crisis. I suggest there are several factors weighing on many emerging...

In December 2006, just weeks before the outbreak of “unforeseen” crisis, then-Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke discussed the breathtaking advance of China’s economy. He was in Beijing for a monetary conference, and the unofficial theme of his speech, as I read it, was “you can do better.” While economic gains were substantial, he said, they were uneven. To keep China going down the same path of rapid growth,...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.32% at 1.135 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 02(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The US dollar is rising against most of the major and emerging market currencies. The Swiss franc and the Japanese yen are the exceptions and are holding their own. Global equities are mixed. Asia, excluding Japan, was mostly lower,...

The IMF reports the most authoritative currency allocation of global reserves at the end of every quarter with a quarter delay. Invariably, an economist, strategist, or journalist is inspired to write why some data nugget confirms the demise of the dollar as the dominant currency. Given the unorthodox US President, his criticism of Fed policy, and desire for a weaker dollar, the protectionism, and trillion-dollar...

The populist government’s plans to increase the deficit could set it on a collision course with Brussels. We remain bearish Italian bonds and euro peripheral bonds in general. Leaders of Italy’s coalition government and the finance minister yesterday agreed on a 2.4% GDP deficit target. The new target is higher than our expectation of a deficit “above but close to 2.0%” in 2019. For us, the key issue is not so much the...