The latest numbers released by China’s statistics bureau fueled widespread concerns about the outlook of the global economy, as the Asian superpower reported its slowest growth rate since 1990. The figures showed a 6.6% growth for 2018, confirming the view that the growth engine of the world economy is running out of steam. Deep-seeded vulnerabilities, far beyond the trade war China’s weakening growth has been widely attributed to the country’s trade frictions with the United States. To...
Read More »Crypto-crash: An optimistic post-mortem – Part II
Blatant security deficits and rampant fraud Over the last year, news of crypto hacks and heists became so prevalent that the new breaches were hardly worthy of reporting anymore. Among the headliners, however, was the Coincheck case, the Japanese exchange that lost over $530 million worth of the NEM cryptocurrency, as was Zaif, another exchange also from Japan, that saw $60 million worth of digital currencies vanish. Bancor, an Israeli-Swiss decentralized exchange lost $23 million to a...
Read More »Fear Or Reflation Gold?
Gold is on fire, but why is it on fire? When the precious metals’ price falls, Stage 2, we have a pretty good idea what that means (collateral). But when it goes the other way, reflation or fear of deflation? Stage 1 or Stage 3? If it is Stage 1 reflation based on something like the Fed’s turnaround, then we would expect to find US$ markets trading in exactly the same way. Like 2017, when gold was last rising, there...
Read More »Crypto-crash: An optimistic post-mortem – Part I
2018 was an Annus Horribilis for the entire crypto industry. Believers and crypto enthusiasts, swept up by the rally of 2017, found themselves on the wrong side of a crashing market. On the right side where the early critics, who were once accused of cynicism and a lack of imagination for calling the crypto market a bubble, and were finally vindicated. As the media eventually turned on the sector and gleefully reported on its demise, investor sentiment soured and soon anyone who’d ever...
Read More »Monthly Macro Monitor – January 2019
A Return To Normalcy In the first two years after a newly elected President takes office he enacts a major tax cut that primarily benefits the wealthy and significantly raises tariffs on imports. His foreign policy is erratic but generally pulls the country back from foreign commitments. He also works to reduce immigration and roll back regulations enacted by his predecessor. This President is widely rumored to have...
Read More »As Germany goes, so goes the Eurozone
Until recently, Germany has been the seemingly unbreakable workhorse that has pulled the European economy back from the brink and kept it ticking along through a myriad of internal and external pressures, as well as political crises, over the last decade. As the undeniable leader of the bloc, the country has spearheaded and supported rescue plans for the Eurozone’s weaker links, as well as a number of controversial policies that work towards further centralization within the EU. However,...
Read More »Yellow Vests: Shockwaves felt across the continent
When the first demonstrations on the streets of Paris were reported seven weeks ago, nobody could have foreseen the endurance, the tenacity and the viral effect of the Yellow Vests movement. After all, the French are known to protest and to strike, it’s part and parcel of their culture. However, by the time this article is being written, protests, marches and demonstrations have broken out in a multitude of European cities. Why was it different this time? To begin with, it is worth...
Read More »Living In The Present
The secret of health for both mind and body is not to mourn for the past, nor to worry about the future, but to live in the present moment wisely and earnestly. Buddha Review It’s that time of year again, time to cast the runes, consult the iChing, shake the Magic Eight Ball and read the tea leaves. What will happen in 2019? Will it be as bad as 2018 when positive returns were hard to come by, as rare as affordable...
Read More »Money: How its past predicts its future – The denationalization of money!
What is money, where does it come from and more importantly where does it go? At first glance, it might appear inexplicable and bizarre that our governments and our rulers have managed to keep their stronghold over the monetary system for 2000 years, especially when one thinks about the countless ways in which they abused that power and used their monopoly to the detriment of their own citizens. It was a mass delusion that facilitated this, a blind belief that they, and they alone, can...
Read More »Italy: The brewing storm
Over the last couple of years, the main challenge to EU cohesion has been Brexit, with the media sharply focused on the negotiations and all relevant developments. Since the release of the draft withdrawal agreement, largely perceived as a victory for the EU, those who support the European project and believe in a strong leadership from Brussels have projected confidence and optimism for the future. According to these voices, the divisions caused by the rise of nationalism and populism...
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