Tag Archives: Gold

Economic Reports Production Production ended the year on a strong note but early readings from January are not as positive. The December industrial production report headline was strong at a 0.9% gain but a lot of that strength was in the mining (oil drilling) and utility sectors. Mining has actually led the way the last year as rig count has risen with drilling activity. I’d love to see our economy less dependent on...

USD/CHF The USDCHF pair found solid support at 0.9564 barrier, which forced the price to rebound bullishly to approach testing the key resistance 0.9655, met by the EMA50 to add more strength to it, while stochastic shows clear overbought signals now. Therefore, these factors encourage us to continue suggesting the bearish trend in the upcoming sessions, as our next main target is located at 0.9420, noting that the...

USD/CHF The USDCHF pair succeeded to break 0.9656 level and hold with a daily close below it, which confirms opening the way to extend the bearish wave towards our yesterday’s mentioned next target at 0.9566, noticing that the price approaches retesting the broken level now. Therefore, we are waiting for more decline in the upcoming sessions, noting that breaching 0.9656 might push the price to achieve some intraday...

Economic Reports Employment We received several employment related reports in the first two weeks of the year. The rate of growth in employment has been slowing for some time – slowly – and these reports continue that trend. The JOLTS report showed a drop in job openings, hires and quits. The Fed has been talking about a tight labor market but this report peaked last July so that may not be as much a concern as they...

There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor the allocation to bonds is 50%, risk assets 45% and cash 5%. The extreme overbought condition of the US stock market persists so I will continue to hold a modest amount of cash. There are some minor changes within the portfolios but the overall allocation is unchanged. - Click to enlarge There have been two major developments since...

While the Western world was off for Christmas and New Year’s, the Chinese appeared to have taken advantage of what was a pretty clear buildup of “dollars” in Hong Kong. Going back to early November, HKD had resumed its downward trend indicative of (strained) funding moving again in that direction (if it was more normal funding, HKD wouldn’t move let alone as much as it has). China’s currency, however, was curiously...

The economy ended 2017 with current growth just slightly above trend. In general the reports of the last two weeks of the year were pretty good with housing a standout performer going into the new year. We are still trying to get past the impact – positive and negative – from the hurricanes a few months ago though so it is probably prudent to wait for more evidence before making any definitive pronouncements about the...

The economic data over the last two weeks continued the better than expected trend. Some of the data was quite good and makes one wonder if maybe, just maybe, we are finally ready to break out of the economic doldrums. Is it possible that all that new normal, secular stagnation stuff was just a lack of animal spirits? Is it possible that the mere anticipation of tax cuts was sufficient to break us out of the 2% growth...

USD/CHF The USDCHF pair traded with clear negativity yesterday to break 0.9892 level and settles below it, which stops the recently suggested positive scenario and put the price within the correctional bearish track again, noting that there is a bearish pattern that its signs appear on the chart, which means that breaking its neckline at 0.9840 will extend the pair’s losses to surpass 0.9800 and reach 0.9730 as a...

Buy Gold, Silver Time After Speculators Reduce Longs and Banks Reduce Shorts – Gold and silver COT suggests bottoming and price rally coming– Speculators cut way back on long positions and added to short bets– Commercials/banks significantly reduced short positions– Commercial net short position saw biggest one-week decline in COMEX history– ‘Big 4’ commercial traders decreased their short positions by 28,800...