Tag Archives: FX Trends

Marc Chandler - Click to enlarge I was on Bloomberg TV this morning to weigh in on the dollar’s rally. The US Dollar Index is flirting with the 100 area that has blocked side since last year. In my work, after a big run-up form around 80 in mid 2014, the Dollar Index has been consolidating. I have long anticipated a spring board for another leg up. The fundamental logic was the divergence in monetary policy and the...

Comment on Swiss Franc by George Dorgan My articles About meMy booksFollow on:TwitterFacebookGoogle +YoutubeSeeking AlphaCFA SocietyLinkedINEconomicBlogs Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, November 14(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ). - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar rally that moved into a higher gear in the second half of last week has begun the new week with a bang. It is up against nearly...

Introduction by George Dorgan My articles About meMy booksFollow on:TwitterFacebookGoogle +YoutubeSeeking AlphaCFA SocietyLinkedINEconomicBlogs Summary: US election results accelerated forces that were already present. Interest rates have appeared to bottom, fiscal stimulus in Canada and Japan already evident, and divergence between US and EMU/Japan monetary policy. US stimuli may reach when the economy...

Swiss Franc Currency Index and the Trump Reflation Trade The Swiss Franc Index rose sharply, shortly after the U.S. elections. But then the Trump reflation trade came. Trump may fulfills the wet dreams of many economists. With tax cuts he might extend the U.S. fiscal deficit up to 10% per year. This resulted in: Gains on U.S. stocks and other dollar-denominated assets. In particular by yield-seeking Japanese pension...

Introduction by George Dorgan My articles About meMy booksFollow on:TwitterFacebookGoogle +YoutubeSeeking AlphaCFA SocietyLinkedINEconomicBlogs Summary: Federal spending growth under Obama is lower than under the previous four presidents. Subsequent to the chart, US federal spending has increased. It will likely increase more under the next President. The US policy mix is changing. The trajectory of...

Introduction by George Dorgan My articles About meMy booksFollow on:TwitterFacebookGoogle +YoutubeSeeking AlphaCFA SocietyLinkedINEconomicBlogs Summary: Prime Minister May is appealing the High Court decision and preparing to present broad guidelines of her strategy. An early election; even if it could be arranged, it is not clear which wing of the Tories would win. May missed the opportunity to provide...

Introduction by George Dorgan My articles About meMy booksFollow on:TwitterFacebookGoogle +YoutubeSeeking AlphaCFA SocietyLinkedINEconomicBlogs Summary: The dollar’s trade-weighted index is firming and a couple percentage points from the year’s high set in January. The yen’s trade-weighted index is at several month lows, but remains dramatically higher year-to-date. The euro’s trade-weighted index has...

Comment on Swiss Franc by George Dorgan My articles About meMy booksFollow on:TwitterFacebookGoogle +YoutubeSeeking AlphaCFA SocietyLinkedINEconomicBlogs Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, November 11(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ). - Click to enlarge FX Rates The forces unleashed by the US election results continue to drive the capitals markets. The combination of nationalism, reflation and...

Introduction by George Dorgan My articles About meMy booksFollow on:TwitterFacebookGoogle +YoutubeSeeking AlphaCFA SocietyLinkedINEconomicBlogs Summary: US 10-year rate premium is the largest in 2.5 years. US 2-year premium is the most since Q4 2008. Japanese investors likely will be buying foreign bonds, while foreigners may see opportunities in Japanese stocks after being large sellers in the first 9...

I was just as surprised as anyone by the election outcome.   The initial market reaction was not as surprising, but the dramatic reversal was.  About a dozen hours after the election was called, John Authers from the Financial Times came to my office and we chatted.  Check out the cool video here.