Tag Archives: Featured

For every action there is a reaction. Not only is that Sir Isaac Newton’s third law, it’s also a statement about human nature. Unlike physics where causes and effects are near simultaneous, there is a time component to how we interact. In official capacities, even more so. Bureaucratic inertia means a lot more than just resistance to change, it also means, at times and in certain capacities, all sorts of biases. When the bureaucracy predicts one set of circumstance,...

The cross needs to hold above the 1.0970s and beyond the 25th July swing lows. To the downside, a break back below the prior descending resistance will spell bad news for the bulls. EUR/CHF has been running higher of late, despite the onset of the European Central Bank – a possible buy the rumour sell the fact scenario as the less committed euro shorts are squeezed. Nevertheless, the price action is all the counts from a technical analysis perspective. EUR/CHF has...

We expect the Swiss National Bank to stay on hold at its next policy meeting, but a lot will depend on ECB and Fed meetings. Uncertainties and global slowdown are weighing on business investment in Switzerland, while household consumption growth has been slowing. Swiss GDP rose by 0.3% q-o-q in Q2 (down from 0.4% in Q1), mainly due to spending in healthcare, housing and energy. Previous quarters were revised down and now show that Switzerland was in a technical...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.22% to 1.0933 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, September 10(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The momentum from the end of last week carried into yesterday’s activity, but the momentum began fading. Today, equities were mixed in Asia Pacific and weaker in Europe. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 reversed lower yesterday and is slipped further today. The S&P 500 may gap lower at...

Germany has recently joined Switzerland in the dubious All Negative Club. The interest rate on every government bond, from short to 30 years, is now negative. Many would say “congratulations”, in the belief that this proves their credit risk is … well … umm … negative(?) And anyways, it will let them borrow more to spend on consumption which will stimulate … umm… well… all of the wasteful consumption for which governments are rightly infamous. While those who are...

USD/CHF clings to 0.9890 after unemployment data. A four-day-old symmetrical triangle limits the pair’s near-term moves. 200-HMA adds to the support while 0.9920 limits the upside. USD/CHF remains largely unchanged after the headline job data as it trades near 0.9890 ahead of Monday’s European session open. August month seasonally adjusted Unemployment Rate for Switzerland matches 2.3% forecast and prior. Hence, the pair is more likely to continue within immediate...

Give stimulus a chance, that’s the theme being set up for this week. After relentless buying across global bond markets distorting curves, upsetting politicians and the public alike, central bankers have responded en masse. There were more rate cuts around the world in August than there had been at any point since 2009. And there’s more to come. As Bloomberg reported late last week: Over the next 12 months, interest-rate swap markets have priced in around 58 more...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.52% to 1.0944 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, September 09(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The improvement of investor sentiment seen last week is carrying over into the start of the new weeks. Global equities are firm as are benchmark yields. Asia Pacific equities advanced, except in Hong Kong, where Chief Executive Lam’s promise to formally withdraw the controversial...

The step away from the edge of the abyss may have stirred the animal spirits, but it remains precarious at best. The formal withdrawal of the extradition bill in Hong Kong is too late and too little at this juncture. The ambitions of the protests have evolved well beyond that. Italy has a new government, but a prolonged honeymoon is unlikely for this unlikely union. Face-to-face talks between the US and China are better than no talks but hardly indicates an end to...

Despite some positive developments last week, we think the three key issues for risk assets have not been resolved yet.  Hong Kong protests continue, while reports suggest the US and China remain far apart.  Even Brexit has likely been given only a three month reprieve.  We remain negative on EM until these key issues have been ultimately resolved.  China reports August money and loan data this week but no data has been set.  With the recently announced cuts in...