Tag Archives: Featured

Our sovereign rating model suggests the US will lose its AAA/Aaa rating.  With fiscal stimulus efforts continuing with this latest $484 bln package, the case for downgrades just keep getting stronger but the timing is unclear.  How might markets react?  We look back to 2011 for some clues. RECENT DEVELOPMENTS The White House and House Democrats struck a deal on a new aid package worth $484 bln.  The extra $500 bln amounts to about 2.5% of GDP.  The IMF estimated...

All over the world, governments and central banks are addressing the pandemic crisis with three main sets of measures: Massive liquidity injections and rate cuts to support markets and credit. Unprecedented fiscal programs aimed at providing loans and grants for the real economy. Large public spending programs, fundamentally in current spending and relief measures. However, they may cause deeper problems than those they aim to solve. When governments try to...

A shortage of frozen butter in Switzerland has the industry wanting to import 1,000 tons. Dairy farmers disagree. On Thursday an umbrella groupexternal link for the dairy sector announced that it had applied to the federal authorities for permission to import 1,000 tons of butter. There are currently 1,500 tons of frozen butter reserves in Switzerland, but the nation would need 4,000-5,000 tons to get through the demand for the rest of the year, says the group....

The virus news stream is negative today; the dollar is trying to build on its recent gains Weekly jobless claims are expected at 4.5 mln vs. 5.245 mln last week; regional Fed manufacturing surveys for April continue to roll out ECB confirmed reports that it will accept sub-investment grade debt as collateral; EU leaders will hold a video conference today Preliminary April eurozone PMI readings were awful; UK readings were even worse Japan reported weak preliminary...

Wouldn’t you feel great knowing that your stock picking is fully insured by the Fed? Billionaires and wealthy hedge fund managers know the feeling. This Audio Mises Wire is generously sponsored by Christopher Condon. Narrated by Millian Quinteros. Original Article: “Why Markets Are Rallying as Millions Become Unemployed” You Might Also Like Builders in Denial The year 2006 seems like a lifetime ago. The...

My oldest turned seventeen last month. To commemorate the occasion, she and I watched Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. I’d taken her to her first (allegedly) rated-R movie a couple years ago to see the quite good Baby Driver, but this was Tarantino. Brad Pitt won an Oscar for portraying Cliff Booth, the personal stuntman for Leonardo DiCaprio’s struggling actor Rick Dalton. Early on, Cliff consoles Rick after Rick interprets a dinner meeting as a signal that he is...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.05% to 1.052 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, April 24(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The reversal in US equities yesterday set the stage for today’s losses. All the Asia Pacific bourses fell today but Australia. For the week, the regional index is off more than 2%. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 was flat for the week coming into today’s sessions. It is off around 0.5% in...

The increasing volatility of SNB Earnings Annual results are not really definite. Given that the SNB accumulates foreign currencies with interventions, they have huge swings. But the SNB may lose 50 billion in one year and win 60 billion in the next year or vice verse. Franc will rise again with crisis or inflation With a new financial crisis or a with a big rise of inflation, the run into the Swiss franc will start again. Deflationary period (e.g. Corona Crisis)...

 © Miriam Doerr | Dreamstime.com As Switzerland moves towards easing Covid-19 social restrictions, some fear the virus will get away again. A key part of containing the spread is testing. One way to evaluate how comprehensive testing is is to look at positivity, the percentage of tests that are positive. Imagine the population were a jar of jelly beans, the testing a scoop, and the red jelly beans in the scoop positives. Positivity would be the percentage of red...

Many people in Switzerland will be counting their change more carefully. (© Keystone / Christian Beutler) In a revised forecast in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic, federal authorities predict GDP will contract by 6.7% in 2020 and recover slowly in 2021. On Thursday, the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) announced that it had adjusted 2020 economic forecasts to take into account sporting events affected by the pandemic. The original revised forecast...