As we move further into 2017, economic statistics will be subject to their annual benchmark revisions. High frequency data such as any accounts published on or about a single month is estimated using incomplete data. It’s just the nature of the process. Over time, more comprehensive survey results as well as upgrades to statistical processes make it necessary for these kinds of revisions. There is, obviously, great...
Read More »Fall in Swiss property prices accelerates
Over the year ending 31 March 2017, apartment prices across Switzerland dropped by 6.8%, according to a property price report published by the Zurich-based research and consulting firm Fahrländer Partner FPRE. Close to half of the decline (-3.2%) occurred in the first quarter of 2017.Across the year, the price of mid-range apartments fell most (-9.4%), followed by high-end ones (-6.3%) and smaller lower cost...
Read More »French Election – Bad Dream Intrusion
The “Nightmare Option” The French presidential election was temporarily relegated to the back-pages following the US strike on Syria, but a few days ago, the Economist Magazine returned to the topic, noting that a potential “nightmare option” has suddenly come into view. In recent months certainty had increased that once the election moved into its second round, it would be plain sailing for whichever establishment...
Read More »More Thinking about Trade as Pence and Ross Head to Tokyo
Summary: Pence and Ross may “feel out” Abe for interest in a bilateral trade agreement. The US enjoys a small trade surplus with countries it has free-trade agreements. Ownership-based framework of the current account and value-added trade suggest the US trade imbalance is not a significant problem. US Vice President Pence and Commerce Secretary Ross will go to Japan this week. In addition to regional...
Read More »The Left’s Descent to Fascism
The Left is morally and fiscally bankrupt, devoid of coherent solutions, and corrupted by its embrace of the Corporatocracy. History often surprises us with unexpected ironies. For the past century, the slide to fascism could be found on the Right (conservative, populist, nationalist political parties). But now it’s the Left that’s descending into fascism, and few seem to even notice this remarkable development. By Left...
Read More »Gold-Silver Divergence – Precious Metals Supply and Demand
See the introduction and the video for the terms gold basis, co-basis, backwardation and contango. A Force Like Gravity This was a holiday-shorted week, due to Good Friday, and we are posting this Monday evening due to today being a holiday in much of the world. Gold and silver went up the dollar went down, +$33 and +$0.53 -64mg gold and -.05g silver. The prices of the metals in dollar terms are readily available, and...
Read More »FX Daily, April 18: US Dollar Consolidates Yesterday’s Gains
Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, April 18(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar is consolidating the gains scored late in the US session yesterday in response to a Financial Times interview with US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin who seemed to play down the strategic importance of Trump’s recent complaint about the greenback’s strength. Mnuchin spun Trump’s comments to be...
Read More »Gold Bullion Erases Post- Election Fall as Trump Wrong on Dollar – Daily Prophet
Gold Bullion Erases Post- Election Fall as Trump Wrong on Dollar – Daily Prophet Robert Burgess of Bloomberg Prophets President Donald Trump sent currency markets into a tizzy late Wednesday when he signaled his preference for a weaker dollar. “I think our dollar is getting too strong, and partially that’s my fault because people have confidence in me,” Trump told the Wall Street Journal. Although the greenback...
Read More »The Expanded Retail Sales Gap
Retail sales growth in February 2017 was going to be low by virtue of its comparison to February 2016 and the extra day in that month. The Census Bureau’s autoregressive models are supposed to normalize just these kinds of calendar irregularities so that we can make something close to apples to apples comparisons. The seasonally-adjusted estimate for February, however, was calculated to be less than the one for January...
Read More »Assessing China’s Economic Risks
First quarter GDP in China rose 6.9%, better than expected and above the government’s target (6.5%) for 2017. It stands to reason, however, that if Communist officials thought they could get 6.9% to last for the whole year they would have made it their target, especially since 6.5% would be less than the GDP growth rate for 2016 (6.7%). In only that one way is China’s GDP statistic meaningful. Due to unanswered...
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