Tag Archives: Featured

Contradictory Signals Special antennae that help traders catch upcoming opportunities. Available from the same outfit that sells the soup-cooling spoon (Acme Inc). - Click to enlarge There is just one more positioning indicator we want to mention: after surging by around $126 billion since March of 2016, NYSE margin debt has reached a new all time high of more than $561 billion. The important point about this is...

Industrial Production rose 3.4% year-over-year in November 2017, the highest growth rate in exactly three years. The increase was boosted by the aftermath of Harvey and Irma, leaving more doubt than optimism for where US industry is in 2017. For one thing, of that 3.4% growth rate, more than two-thirds was attributable to just two months. Combining April 2017 with October, IP advanced by 2.2% leaving the other 10 to...

At its December meeting, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) left its accommodative monetary policy unchanged. More specifically, the SNB maintained the target range for the three-month Libor at between – 1.25% and-0.25% and the interest rate on sight deposits at a record low of – 0.75%. The SNB also reiterated its commitment to intervene in the foreign exchange market if needed, taking into account the “overall currency...

Dark clouds loom over Tezos in California courts (Keystone) - Click to enlarge A fourth Tezos lawsuit filed in the United States has called on Californian courts to freeze an estimated $1 billion (CHF990 million) of investor assets sitting in a Swiss-based foundation. Law firm Block & Leviton argues that the recent departure of a Tezos Foundation director and the apparent replacement of the entity’s...

© Martinmark | Dreamstime - Click to enlarge The number of visitors to Switzerland rose 6% this summer, but this headline figure hides some steep rises and falls. From May to October 2017, 11 million people holidayed in Switzerland, 644,000 more than the over same period in 2016. Swiss made up close to half the total (4.9 million), followed by Germans (950k), Americans (663k), Chinese (659k), British (396k), French...

Nations that attempt to limit cryptocurrencies’ ability to solve these problems will find that protecting high costs and systemic friction will grind their economies into dust. There’s a great deal of confusion right now about the regulation of cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin. Many observers seem to confuse “regulation” and “banning bitcoin,” as if regulation amounts to outlawing bitcoin. Further confusing things is...

The PBOC has two seemingly competing objectives that in reality are one and the same. Overnight, China’s central bank raised two of its money rates. The rate it charges mostly the biggest banks for access to the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) was increased by 5 bps to 3.25%. In addition, its reverse repo interest settings were also moved up by 5 bps each at the various tenors (to 2.50% for the 7-day, 2.80% for the...

Another Shoeshine Boy Moment We recently pondered the markets while trying out our brand-new electric soup-cooling spoon (see below). We are pondering the markets quite often lately, because we believe tail risk has grown by leaps and bounds and we may be quite close to an important juncture, i.e.,  the kind of pivot that can generate both a lot of excitement and a lot of regret all around. Provided one manages to...

In the most ironic story of the day, the company that makes the paper that Swiss banknotes are printed on was just bailed out by the money-printing, stock-purchasing, plunge-protecting, savior-of-global equities…Swiss National Bank. - Click to enlarge While The SNB has a long and checkered history of buying shares in companies… as we have detailed numerous times, it is no stranger to pumping money into companies...

During an uneventful ECB press conference on Thursday, attention centred on the new staff projections. The headline projections were in line with expectations, albeit slightly higher on GDP growth and lower on inflation. The key word was “confidence” – in a strong expansion leading to a “significant” reduction in economic slack, as well as in the ECB’s capacity to meet its mandate. That said, ECB President Mario Draghi...