Tag Archives: Featured

Swiss Franc Switzerland Trade Balance, Jan 2017(see more posts on Switzerland Trade Balance, ) Source: Investing.com - Click to enlarge GBP/CHF The pound to Swiss Franc rate has been in the main driven by sterling weakness which is weighing on the performance of the pound which has been in the main negative but we have lately seen the pound higher. This is mainly due to some clarity over the Brexit and just what...

Russia Gold Buying Returns – Adds Substantial One Million Ounces To Reserves In January Russia gold buying returned in January with the Russian central bank buying a very large 1 million ounces or 37 metric tonnes of gold bullion. The increase in the gold reserves came after Russia did not buy a single ounce in December – a move seen as potentially a signal or an olive branch to the U.S. and the incoming Trump...

Summary: Many are discussing a possible head-and-shoulders pattern in the Dollar Index. We are skeptical as other technical signals do not confirm. We recognize scope for disappointment over the border tax and the next batch of employment data, but European politics is the present driver and may not be alleviated soon. Here is the chart nearly everyone is discussing.  The Dollar Index appears to be carving...

Summary: For the first time since the financial crisis, the 5-year CDS on JGBs is dipping below the 5-year US CDS. It appears to be more a function of a decline in Japan’s CDS than a rise in the US CDS. We are reluctant to read too much into the small price changes in the mostly illiquid instruments.   This Great Graphic was created on Bloomberg and depicts Japan and US 5-year credit default swap indicative...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, February 20(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge FX Rates US markets are closed for the Presidents’ Day holiday, but it hasn’t prevented its pre-weekend gains giving a bullish tone to global equities.  The S&P 500 and NASDAQ recovered from early weakness to close at new record levels before the weekend. Global equity markets are following suit today. The...

Industrial Production in the United States was flat in January 2017, following in December the first positive growth rate in over a year. The monthly estimates for IP are often subject to greater revisions than in other data series, so the figures for the latest month might change in the months ahead. Still, even with that in mind, there is no acceleration indicated for US industry. After suffering through a more than...

After eight years of the regulation-happy Obama administration, the United States has undergone a huge slide into the 17th most economically free country in the world, according to the Heritage Foundation’s 2017 Index of Economic Freedom. Under president Obama, the federal government issued over 600 major regulations, costing the U.S. economy hundreds of millions of dollars. Those regulations were placed on top of...

Headlines Week February 20, 2017 Recently inflation rose more quickly in the euro zone, but this was mostly caused by a temporary oil price effect. Therefore the ECB might be dovish for a longer period than the SNB. Consumer price inflation will decide who is more dovish. Ultimately inflation will depend on the two key parameters wages and rents. Rents will rise first in Switzerland, while the Euro zone has downwards...

“The eurozone isn’t working …” warns Greenspan “I view gold as the primary global currency” said Greenspan “Significant increases in inflation will ultimately increase the price of gold” “Investment in gold now is insurance…” Alan Greenspan, the former head of the Federal Reserve has warned that the euro may collapse, saying that he has “grave concerns” about its future. The imbalances in the economic strength of euro...

Swiss Franc Speculators were net short CHF in January 2015, shortly before the end of the peg, with 26.4K contracts. Then again in December 2015, when they expected a Fed rate hike, with 25.5K contracts. The biggest short CHF, however, happened in June 2007, when speculators were net short 80K contracts. Shortly after, the U.S. subprime crisis started. The carry trade against CHF collapsed. The...