Stock Markets EM FX ended the week firm, and capped off a good week overall. Best performers last week for ZAR and KRW, while the worst were TRY and IDR. Until we get higher US rates, the dollar may remain under modest pressure. This would help EM maintain some traction, though we remain cautious. Stock Markets Emerging Markets, November 15 Source: econnomist.com - Click to enlarge Chile Chile will hold...
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Summary: Euro is testing trendline and retracement objective and 100-day moving average. Technical indicators on daily bar charts warn of upside risk. Two-year rate differentials make it expensive to be long euros vs. US. Beware of small samples that may exaggerate seasonality. This Great Graphic, created on Bloomberg, shows that the euro is approaching key area. The white trendline drawn off the September 8,...
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© Wrangel | Dreamstime - Click to enlarge The Credit Suisse 2017 Global Wealth Report, shows total global wealth rose 6.4% to USD 280 trillion in 2016, taking it to the its highest level since 2007, before the financial meltdown in 2008. Globally, average wealth per adult was USD 56,540. In Switzerland, the same figure was USD 537,600 (CHF 533,000), close to ten times the global average, placing Switzerland in the...
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The Swiss are getting ready to negotiate with the EU when European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker visits next week (Keystone) The seven-member Federal Council has refused to reveal its position on future negotiations with the European Union over CHF1 billion (little over $1 billion) in voluntary ‘cohesion’ payments destined for central and eastern European countries. On Wednesday, the government discussed its...
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On the vital matter of missing symmetry, consumer price indices across the world keep suggesting there remains none. Recoveries were called “V” shaped for a reason. Any economy knocked down would be as intense in getting back up, normal cyclical forces creating momentum for that to (only) happen. In the context of the past three years, symmetry is still nowhere to be found. It’s confounding even central bankers who up...
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In January 2016, everything came to a head. The oil price crash (2nd time), currency chaos, global turmoil, and even a second stock market liquidation were all being absorbed by the global economy. The disruptions were far worse overseas, thus the global part of global turmoil, but the US economy, too, was showing clear signs of distress. A manufacturing recession had emerged which would only ever be the case on weak...
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Summary Moody’s raised India’s sovereign debt rating for the first time since 2004 by a notch to Baa2. Nigerian officials are on a global roadshow to support plans to issue its longest-dated Eurobonds ever The head of South Africa’s budget office resigned. President Robert Mugabe was placed under house arrest by the Zimbabwe military. Turkey’s central bank will introduce FX hedges for domestic companies with FX...
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Deepening Crisis In Hyper-inflationary Venezuela and Zimbabwe – Real inflation in Zimbabwe is 313 percent annually and 112 percent on a monthly basis – Venezuela’s new 100,000-bolivar note is worth less oday thehan USD 2.50 – Maduro announces plans to eliminate all physical cash – Gold rises in response to ongoing crises One Hundred Trillion Dollars Zimbabwe - Click to enlarge A military coup-de-grace in Zimbabwe...
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The HSBC settlement brings an end to the French tax dispute. (AP) - Click to enlarge With a payment of €300 million (CHF350 million), the Swiss subsidiary of British bank HSBC has settled its tax fraud dispute with the French authorities. Investigations by the French government revealed that many French taxpayers had hidden their assets with help from HSBC’s private bank. However, HSBC Switzerlandexternal...
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As a natural progression from the analysis of one historical bond “bubble” to the latest, it’s statements like the one below that ironically help it continue. One primary manifestation of low Treasury rates is the deepening mistrust constantly fomented in markets by the media equivalent of the boy who cries recovery. That narrative “has ruffled a few feathers,” BMO Capital Markets strategists Ian Lyngen and Aaron Kohli...
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