The NBER has made its formal declaration. Surprising no one, as usual this group of mainstream academic Economists wishes to tell us what we already know. At least this time their determination of recession is noticeably closer to the beginning of the actual event. The Great “Recession”, you might recall, wasn’t even classified as an “official” contraction until December 2008 – a full year after the NBER figured the thing had begun. Rather than becoming much...
Read More »FX Daily, June 8: Monday Blues: Consolidation Threatened
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.28% to 1.0831 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, June 8(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose for a sixth consecutive session. Japan, Taiwan, Singapore, and Indonesian markets advanced more than 1%. European bourses are mixed, with the peripheral shares doing better than the core, leaving the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 about 0.5% lower near midday after...
Read More »FX Daily, May 27: China and Hong Kong Pressures are Having Limited Knock-on Effects
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.63% to 1.0667 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, May 27(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The S&P 500 gapped higher yesterday, above the recent ceiling and above the 200-day moving average for the first time since early March. The momentum faltered, and it finished below the opening level and near session lows. The spill-over into today’s activity has been minor. The...
Read More »FX Daily, May 21: Markets Pull Back after Flirting with Breakouts
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.40% to 1.0634 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, May 21(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: New two and a half month highs in the S&P 500 yesterday failed to have much sway in the Asia Pacific region and Europe today as US-China tensions escalate and profit-taking set in. Perhaps it is a bit of “buy the rumor sell the fact” type of activity on the back of upticks in the...
Read More »FX Daily, May 20: Fed Funds Futures No Longer Imply Negative Rates
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.13% to 1.0592 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, May 20(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Another late sell-off of US equities, ostensibly on questions over Moderna’s progress on a vaccine, failed to deter equity gains in the Asia Pacific region. China was a notable exception, but the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose for the fourth consecutive session. European shares are little...
Read More »FX Daily, May 19: Optimism Burns Eternal
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.08% to 1.0601 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, May 19(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Hopes for a vaccine and a German-French proposal to break the logjam at the EU for a joint recovery effort helped propel equities higher yesterday. There was strong follow-through in the Asia Pacific region, where most markets advanced by more than 1% today. However, the bloom came off...
Read More »FX Daily, May 12: Markets Tread Water, Looking for New Focus
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.02% to 1.0515 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, May 12(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Investors seem to be in want of new drivers, leaving the capital markets with little fresh direction. While Japanese and China equities were little changed, several markets in the region, including Australia, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and India, were off more than 1%. European bourses are mostly...
Read More »FX Daily, May 11: Quiet Start to New Week
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.08% to 1.0514 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, May 11(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The new week begins slowly in the capital markets. Many markets in the Asia Pacific region, including Japan, Hong Kong, and Australia, gained over 1%, but European and US shares are heavier. Benchmarks off all three regions rallied by 3.4%-3.5% over the past two weeks. Bond markets are...
Read More »FX Daily, May 8: Jobs and Negative Fed Funds Futures
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.09% to 1.0528 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, May 08(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The S&P 500 closed near its session lows for the third day running yesterday but failed to deter the bulls in Asia-Pacific, where most markets rose by more than 1%. Taiwan, Korea, and Australia lagged a bit though closed higher. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is firm, and the modest...
Read More »FX Daily, May 7: China Reports an Unexpected Jump in Exports, While Norway Surprises with a Rate Cut
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.10% to 1.0532 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, May 07(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: There is a sense of indecision in the air today. There have been several developments, but investors seem mostly reluctant to extend positions. China reported a surge in exports in April and an increase in the value of reserves. Australia reported a rise in exports in March. The Bank of...
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