Unlike some sentiment indicators, the ISM Non-manufacturing, in particular, actual trade in goods continued to contract in May 2020. Both exports and imports fell further, though the rate of descent has improved. In fact, that’s all the other, more subdued PMI’s like Markit’s have been suggesting. Getting closer to a bottom. Unlike any of the sentiment numbers, however, these trade figures better demonstrate just how far from a rebound let alone recovery the world...
Read More »Trumps wahre China-Politik
US-Präsident Donald Trump geht es im Handelskrieg mit China bloss um seine eigene Position. Und nicht um einen fairen Aussenhandel. Da schien der Handelskrieg beigelegt: Trump und Xi Jinping am G20-Gipfel in Japan 2019. Foto: Keystone Seit der Corona-Krise ist der Handelskrieg in den Hintergrund gerückt. Doch seine Ursachen sind nicht behoben. Im Gegenteil: Gerade wegen der Krise verschärfen sie sich weiter. Angesichts einer schwachen Nachfrage im Inland sind alle...
Read More »Cool Video: Dollar, Trade, and China on TDA Network
I began my career as a reporter on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, covering the currency futures and short-term interest rate futures for a news wire. Among other things, I learned that often, the locals, people trading with their own money and wits, would take the opposite side of trades of the institutional players. The institutional operators had deeper pockets but were looking to lay-off risk. It was a David vs. Goliath story often. It is,...
Read More »FX Daily, July 6: New Record Number of Covid Cases Doesn’t Curtail Appetite for Risk
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.07% to 1.064 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, July 6(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: A new daily high number of contagions globally has been reported, but the risk-appetites have been stoked. Chinese stocks have been on a tear. The Shanghai Composite rallied 5.7% today to bring the five-day advance to 13.6%. Most other regional markets, including Hong Kong, rallied as well...
Read More »FX Daily, July 1: Second Verse Can’t be Worse than the First, Can it?
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.04% to 1.0641 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, July 1(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The resurgence of the contagion in the US has stopped or reversed an estimated 40% of the re-openings, but the appetite for risk has begun the second half on a firm note, helped by manufacturing PMIs that were above preliminary estimates or better than expected. Except for Tokyo and...
Read More »What The PMIs Aren’t Really Saying, In China As Elsewhere
China’s PMI’s continue to impress despite the fact they continue to be wholly unimpressive. As with most economic numbers in today’s stock-focused obsessiveness, everything is judged solely by how much it “surprises.” Surprises who? Doesn’t matter; some faceless group of analysts and Economists whose short-term modeling has somehow become the very standard of performance. According to one such group, China’s official manufacturing index, the one calculated and...
Read More »FX Daily, June 30: When Primary is Secondary
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.40% to 1.0647 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, June 30(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The gains in US equities yesterday carried into Asia Pacific trading today, but the European investors did not get the memo. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is succumbing to selling pressure and giving back yesterday’s gain. Energy and financials are the biggest drags, while real estate and...
Read More »FX Daily, June 29: USD is Offered in Quiet Start to the New Week
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.29% to 1.0671 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, June 29(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The combination of rising virus cases and the sell-off in the US before the weekend dragged nearly all the Asia Pacific bourses lower. The Nikkei led the way with more than a 2% drop, but most bourses were off more than 1%. China and Taiwan were also greeted with selling as markets...
Read More »FX Daily, June 24: Risk Appetites Satiated for the Moment
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.07% to 1.0672 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, June 24(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The rally in risk assets in North America yesterday is failing to carry over into today’s activity. Asia Pacific equities were mixed. Korea and Indonesia led the advances with more than 1% gain. China and Taiwan also gained. Japan and Hong Kong. Europe’s Dow Jone’s Stoxx 600 is giving...
Read More »FX Daily, June 23: Weebles Wobble but they Don’t Fall Down
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.22% to 1.069 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, June 23(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: After early indecision, investors ramped the demand for risk assets, encouraged perhaps by indications that the Trump Administration going to support at least another trillion-stimulus package. The NASDAQ rallied to new record highs, and the dollar got thumped across the board. However,...
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