Tag Archives: 5) Global Macro

Market sentiment reverse sharply to the positive side due to several factors; as a result, the dollar has suffered The Fed beefed up its support for the corporate bond market; all eyes are on Fed Chair Powell as he delivers his semi-annual report to the Senate today The Trump administration is reportedly preparing a large infrastructure bill; May retail sales will be the data highlight Comments from UK and EU officials have sparked optimism about Brexit talks; UK...

So what do we know with any sort of certainty about the claim that “the pandemic is over”? Very little. Is the pandemic over in China, Europe, Japan and the U.S./Canada? Is the much-anticipated V-Shaped economic recovery already baked in, i.e. already gathering momentum? The consensus, as reflected by the stock market (soaring), the corporate media and governmental easings of restrictions seems to be “yes” to both questions. But science is not a consensus-based...

EM and other risk assets stabilized to end the week after Thursday’s selloff, but remain vulnerable. The risks ahead are the same as before, which include a second wave of infections as well as a longer and shallower than expected recovery in global growth. The Fed’s message of low rates as far as the eye can see was balanced by Powell’s grim outlook for unemployment. The liquidity story should remain positive for EM, with the BOE expected to increase its QE this...

Concerns about still rising infection numbers and a second wave ofCovid-19 have contributed to today’s downdraft in risk assets; for now, the weak dollar trend is hard to fight Despite delivering no change in policy, the Fed nonetheless sent an unequivocally dovish signal; stocks have not reacted well to the Fed; weekly jobless claims and May PPI will be reported Peru is expected to keep rates steady at 0.25%; Brazil inflation data supports a 75 bp cut next week The...

. Come on, Jay, you can always goose stocks back to new highs after the election. Indulge me for a moment in some backroom speculation. It’s absurdly obvious that the unelected, permanent, ever-expanding National Security State, a.k.a the Deep State, and its Democratic Party allies have been attempting to torpedo Donald Trump since the 2016 election took them by surprise. (Imagine doing everything that worked so well in the past and failing at the last minute. Ouch....

Today’s risk off price action appears to have been triggered by profit-taking; the dollar has gotten some traction The Fed expanded its Main Street Loan Program to include more businesses; the jobs rebound has removed a sense of urgency regarding the next round of fiscal stimulus Some minor US data will be seen today; Mexico reports May CPI Germany reported weak April trade and current account data; there were two important developments in Turkey today Japan reported...

The FOMC decision comes out this afternoon and we expect a dovish hold; this would of course be negative for the dollar Ahead of the decision, May CPI will be reported; the budget statement will be of interest; Brazil reports May IPCA inflation We are still getting mixed messages about Europe’s flagship €750 bln recovery package; French April IP fell -20.1% m/m Japan reported weak May PPI and April core machine orders; Australia reported mixed sentiment indicators;...

The dollar has stabilized a bit; Friday’s US jobs data could be a game changer The US bond market selloff continues; for now, the weak dollar trend is hard to fight The Brazilian government has found a way to make a bad situation worse by trying to control its Covid-19 statistics German IP came in a bit worse than expected at -17.9% m/m; the OPEC+ deal ended with the expected supply cut deal, lending continued support to crude prices Japan Q1 GDP revised higher on...

The dollar remains under pressure, due in large part to the Fed’s aggressive efforts to inject stimulus. We see dollar weakness persisting near-term. From a longer-term perspective, we note that the greenback remains largely rangebound and is unlikely to fall below its 2018 lows. Dollar Index, 2015-2020 - Click to enlarge RECENT DEVELOPMENTS There is a growing debate as to the root causes of recent dollar weakness. Is it the burgeoning national debt? The poor US...

The global crisis is not merely economic; it is the result of profound financial, sociological and political trends described by Marx, Kafka, Orwell and Huxley. The unfolding global crisis is best understood as the convergence of the dynamics described by Marx, Kafka, Orwell and Huxley. Let’s start with Franz Kafka, the writer (1883-1924) who most eloquently captured the systemic injustices of all-powerful bureaucratic institutions–the alienation experienced by the...