Tag Archives: Markets

As we enter the final quarter of 2024, there are a lot of questions facing investors. There are, of course, always a lot of questions because investors are always dealing with the future, but today’s environment does seems to have more than usual. Some of these questions concern short-term considerations and while they are important, it is more important to remain focused on the long-term trends. Here’s what I’m thinking about lately: Let’s get the one everyone is...

It certainly seems that technological advances make our lives better. Instead of writing a letter, stamping it, and mailing it (which was vastly more personal), we now send emails. Rather than driving to a local retailer or manufacturer, we order it online. Of course, we mustn’t dismiss the rise of social media, which connects us to everyone and everything more than ever. Economists and experts have long argued that technological advances drive U.S. economic...

Since the end of the “Yen Carry Trade” correction in August, bullish positioning has returned with a vengeance, yet two key risks face investors as September begins. While bullish positioning and optimism are ingredients for a rising market, there is more to this story. It is true that “a rising tide lifts all boats,” meaning that as the market rises, investors begin to chase higher stock prices, leading to a virtual buying spiral. Such leads to an improvement in...

You’re going to hear a lot of talk about the yield curve soon and what it means for “the” yield curve to uninvert (which isn’t a real word but will get used a lot). The difference between the 10-year Treasury note yield and the 2-year Treasury note yield is about to turn positive, the 2-year note yield recently falling a bit more rapidly than the 10-year. You’ll see a lot of pundits say with great confidence that this means we are on the verge of recession. Which may...

In a recent discussion with Adam Taggart via Thoughtful Money, we quickly touched on the similarities between the U.S. and Japanese monetary policies around the 11-minute mark. However, that discussion warrants a deeper dive. As we will review, Japan has much to tell us about the future of the U.S. economically. Let’s start with the deficit. Much angst exists over the rise in interest rates. The concern is whether the government can continue to fund itself, given...

The latest retail sales report seems to have given Wall Street something to cheer about. Headlines touting resilience in consumer spending increased hopes of a “soft landing” boosting the stock market. However, as is often the case, the devil is in the details. We uncover a more troubling picture when we peel back the layers of this seemingly positive data. Seasonal adjustments, downward revisions, and rising delinquency rates on credit cards and auto loans suggest...

When people talk about “the market” they are usually referring the big indexes – the S&P 500 or the NASDAQ. For more casual observers, “the market” is the Dow which is a lousy index for a lot of reasons but has the advantage of history. But are any those really representative of how “the market” is doing? Not really. All markets – stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities – provide us with valuable information about the economy. The stock market generally reflects...

Best-selling author and economist Bryan Caplan joins the podcast to discuss why housing prices continue to rise, what we can do about it, and why everyone seems to hate markets. Follow Bryan on Twitter @Bryan_Caplan Connect with Monetary Metals on Twitter: @Monetary_Metals [embedded content] Additional Resources Books by Bryan Caplan Bryan Caplan’s Substack: Bet on It Earn Passive Income in Gold Gold Bonds to Avert Financial Armageddon Arthur Jensen Book Podcast...

Interest rates surged last week on the back of a hotter-than-expected inflation report that wasn’t actually that bad (see below). Not that my – or your – opinion about these things matters all that much to the market. In the short run, all that matters is what the majority believes is the truth. What they believed last week was that inflation isn’t falling fast enough and the Fed will not be cutting rates anytime soon. That was enough to send the bond market into a...

So, is that it? Have rates peaked? Is the long bear market finally over?  The market decided last week that interest rates have peaked for this cycle. And if rates have peaked then all the assets that have been pressured over the last two years can finally come up for air. Since October 18, 2021, over two years ago, investors have had few places to hide. Of the major asset classes we follow closely, only two – gold and commodities – were higher by more than a...