SNB & CHF

Interesting Times Arrive “Things sure are getting exciting again, ain’t they?”  The remark was made by a colleague on Tuesday morning, as we stepped off the elevator to grab a cup of coffee. Ancient Chinese curse alert… - Click to enlarge “One moment markets are gorging on financial slop like fat pigs in mud.  The next they’re collectively vomiting on themselves. I’ll tell you one thing.  President Trump’s trade war...

More than 100,000 Italians under 30 years of age left Italy last year, and many of the well-educated among them end up in Switzerland. The cause of the exodus: high unemployment in Italy. (SRF/swissinfo.ch) --- swissinfo.ch is the international branch of the Swiss Broadcasting Corporation (SBC). Its role is to report on Switzerland and to provide a Swiss perspective on international events. For more articles, interviews and videos visit swissinfo.ch or subscribe to our YouTube channel:...

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Jeffrey Snider to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeff discuss what the current yield curve is telling us? They touch on the changes from an era of fed funds rate targeting and reflect on the 2006-2009 period for interest rates and the reflation trends in the post “Great Financial Crisis”. Jeff continues to deconstruct rates, the negative term premiums and the markets inflation expectations. They conclude looking at central bank failure and why this flat...

Any estimate of the economic costs of protectionist measures, let alone trade wars, is subject to uncertainty given the complexity of global supply chains. A common assumption is that new tariffs on exports will produce small direct effects on GDP growth but more significant indirect effects in the event of escalating trade conflicts, including on domestic investment. Europe looks particularly vulnerable to such...

Jamie Dimon Warns Of Potential ‘Market Panic’ – JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon sees ‘chance of market panic’ – In annual letter to shareholders Dimon warns of increased inflation and interest rates – Concerned QE unwinding could cause chaos as ‘markets will get more volatile’ – Hard to look at the last 20 years in America “and not think that it has been getting increasingly worse.” – Positive about US economy over next...

The Long Run is Here The dollar is failing. Millions of people can see at least some of the major signs, such as the collapse of interest rates, record high number of people not counted in the workforce, and debt rising from already-unpayable levels at an accelerating rate. US Total Credit Market Debt, 1968 - 2018Total US credit market debt has hit a new high of $68.6 trillion at the end of 2017. - Click to enlarge...

The US dollar appears to be carving a low against the yen. After a significant fall, investor ought to be sensitive to bottoming patterns. The first tell was the key reversal on March 26. In this case, the key reversal was when the dollar made a new low for the move (~JPY104.55) and then rallied to close above the previous session high. The second tell was the divergence with the technical indicators. The divergence is...

Silver Bullion: Should We Be Worried About Silver? – Bloomberg’s Mike McGlone silver “set to test the $18 an ounce resistance level” – LBMA report: volume of silver ounces transferred in February fell by 24% – Standard Chartered: gold-silver ratio and supply/demand fundamentals favour silver – Gold/silver ratio at near two-year high on silver’s underperformance – Silver COT reports remain more bullish than at any time...

Global Plunge Protection Teams must be ordering take-out food; every night is a long one now. The current stocks/bonds game is for all the marbles, by which I mean the status quo now depends on valuations and interest rates remaining near their current levels for the system to function. If interest rates soar and/or stocks plummet, the game is over: pension funds collapse, tax revenues drop, debt based on high asset...

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