Tag Archives: United States

In a blog post, Stephen Williamson argues that the US labor market is doing just fine. Given recent productivity growth, and the prospects for employment growth, output growth is going to be low. I’ll say 1.0%-2.0%. And that’s if nothing extraordinary happens. Though we can expect poor performance – low output and employment growth – relative to post-WWII time series for the United States, there is nothing currently in sight that represents an inefficiency that monetary policy could...

This infographic was in the Wall Street Journal on the US election.  It is important to remember that the US does not elect the President by direct popular vote.  This makes the national polls a bit misleading. There are 538 electoral college votes.  To be elected a candidate must secure a majority or 270  electoral college votes.    Obama received 332 elector votes and Romney 206. The WSJ cites four major...

The Economist’s Graphic Detail reports about research documenting that While the Senate’s interest in science is generally quite low, Senate Democrats are three times more likely than Republicans to follow science-related Twitter accounts like NASA or the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Interest in science, the authors conclude, “may now primarily be a ‘Democrat’ value”.

On VoxEU, Charles Calomiris and Matthew Jaremski discuss the origins of bank liability insurance. They argue that it is redistribution, not the aim to boost efficiency, which explains a lot of the action. … there are two theoretical approaches to explaining the creation and expansion of deposit insurance. The first is an economic approach grounded in potential efficiency gains from limiting bank runs (i.e. the public interest motivation). The second is a political approach grounded in the...

On his blog, John Cochrane happily reports about apparent agreement between Larry Summers and himself regarding the dangers of regulatory overkill and incompetence of government officials. John writes: This is a watershed. Here is the kind of reach out for middle ground that could unlock our political and economic sclerosis.  Larry is likely to be in government again sooner or later, and I hope he will push hard for this — and with more effect than the last hundred or so anti-red-tape and...

He wants to “fix the country the right way and from the ground up.” His economic policy proposals are well known (among economists), see here. He also wants to confront North Korea and Iran.

The Greens/EFA group in the European Parliament wants the European Union to exert more pressure on the United States: the US should no longer serve as a “tax haven” for European tax dodgers. Proposed measures include blacklisting and a FATCA-type 30% withholding tax on EU-sourced payments. From the executive summary of the report commissioned by the group: Two global transparency initiatives are underway that could help tackle financial crimes including tax evasion, money laundering and...

When Denmark introduced negative interest rates in 2012, it was a pioneer. But the policy has become such an accepted part of central banks’ toolbox in the years since that financial pundits hardly batted an eyelash when Hungary became the world’s sixth central bank to introduce negative rates in March 2016. As the practice becomes more widespread, the question of how low interest rates can go has become increasingly relevant for investors.   While every country (or region, in the case...

Both the ISM Manufacturing index and its Non-Manufacturing counterpart rose m-o-m in March. However, other economic data recently published were rather weak. Our forecast that GDP will grow by 2.0% in Q1 is revised down to 1.5%. However, our forecast for yearly average growth in 2016 remains unchanged at 2.0%. The ISM Manufacturing survey for March 2016 was published on Friday last week. The headline reading bounced back further from 49.5 in February to an eight-month high of 51.8 in...

A new book on inequality by Branko Milanovic adopts an international perspective. The Economist reviews the book: Like Mr Piketty, he begins with piles of data assembled over years of research. He sets the trends of different individual countries in a global context. Over the past 30 years the incomes of workers in the middle of the global income distribution—factory workers in China, say—have soared, as has pay for the richest 1% (see chart). At the same time, incomes of the working class...