UniBe Discussion Paper 22-12, October 2022. PDF. We analyze retail central bank digital currency (CBDC) in a two-tier monetary system with bank deposit market power and externalities from liquidity transformation. Resource costs of liquidity provision determine the optimal monetary architecture and modified Friedman (1969) rules the optimal monetary policy. Optimal interest rates on reserves and CBDC differ. A calibration for the U.S. suggests a weak case for CBDC in the baseline but a...
Read More »“Kampf um die Währungshoheit (Defending Monetary Sovereignty),” SM, 2022
Schweizer Monat, April 2022, with Markus Brunnermeier. PDF. We describe challenges the digital money revolution poses for central banks and predict that more and more monetary authorities will introduce CBDCs.
Read More »Interview, Riksbank RN, 2021
Riksbank Research News 2021, December 2021. PDF (pp. 2–3), HTML. Q: You have been leader of the CEPR Research and Policy Network on FinTech and Digital Currencies since 2021 and explored issues at the heart of monetary theory and payment systems in your research. What do you think is new about digital central bank money and what makes it different from other digital means of payment? A: Societies have been using digital means of payment for decades. Commercial banks use digital claims...
Read More »“Reserves for All: Political Rather Than Macroeconomic Risks,” CEPR, 2021
Chapter 5 in the CEPR eBook, November 24, 2021. HTML. From the conclusion: From a macroeconomic perspective, central banks can largely neutralise the consequences of CBDC. What is highly uncertain, however, is whether they would choose to do so – the political risks of ‘Reserves for All’ are first-order. The decision for or against CBDC thus should not only reflect the assessment of economic trade-offs, but also whether societies are confident in their ability to efficiently manage...
Read More »“CBDC: Considerations, Projects, Outlook,” CEPR/VoxEU, 2021
CEPR eBook, November 24, 2021. HTML. VoxEU, November 24, 2021. HTML. Retail central bank digital currency has morphed from an obscure fascination of technophiles and monetary theorists into a major preoccupation of central bankers. Pilot projects abound and research on the topic has exploded as private sector initiatives such as Libra/Diem have focused policymakers’ minds and taken the status quo option off the table. In this eBook, academics and policymakers review what we know...
Read More »German Banks Send Mixed Signals on Digital Euro
In the FAZ, Christian Siedenbiedel reports that Deutsche Bank questions whether a digital Euro as envisioned by the ECB (i.e., with tight quantity restrictions) would be successful: Die Argumentation geht so: Die EZB will den digitalen Euro einführen, um auf den verstärkten Währungswettbewerb zu antworten. … Um sich vor solchem Machtverlust sowohl durch Digitalgeld von anderen Notenbanken („Krypto-Dollars“) als auch durch privates Digitalgeld („Global Stable Coins“) zu schützen,...
Read More »“Money Creation, Bank Profits, and CBDC,” VoxEU, 2021
VoxEU, February 5, 2021. HTML. Based on CEPR DP 15457, I assess possible implications of the introduction of retail CBDC for bank profits. The model implies annual implicit subsidies to U.S. banks of up to 0.8 percent of GDP during the period 1999-2017.
Read More »John Cochrane about CBDC and Me
Writing about CBDC, John Cochrane makes it clear that he is in favor. He links to my work and writes Dirk Niepelt has written a lot about CBDC theory, including reserves for all in 2015, a recent Vox-EU summary and papers, here with Markus Brunnermeier a JME paper “CBDC coupled with central bank pass-through funding need not imply a credit crunch nor undermine financial stability,” a follow up including “The model implies annual implicit subsidies to U.S. banks of up to 0.8 percent...
Read More »“Monetary Policy with Reserves and CBDC: Optimality, Equivalence, and Politics,” CEPR, 2020
CEPR Discussion Paper 15457, November 2020. PDF (local copy). We analyze policy in a two-tiered monetary system. Noncompetitive banks issue deposits while the central bank issues reserves and a retail CBDC. Monies differ with respect to operating costs and liquidity. We map the framework into a baseline business cycle model with “pseudo wedges” and derive optimal policy rules: Spreads satisfy modified Friedman rules and deposits must be taxed or subsidized. We generalize the...
Read More »Central Banks Have Accepted a Future Retail CBDC
Recent indications: BIS: Central banks and BIS publish first central bank digital currency (CBDC) report laying out key requirements (9 October 2020) ECB: A Digital Euro (updated regularly) Bank of Russia: Bank of Russia announces public discussions on digital ruble (13 October 2020) Related recent developments: Digital Dollar Project: The Digital Dollar Project Publishes Nine Pilot Scenarios to Test Elements of a US CBDC (October 2020) Monetative e.V.: Digitales Zentralbankgeld aus...
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