Tag Archives: Recession

As we predicted over a year ago, in a world in which QE has failed, and in which the ice-cold grip of NIRP has to be global in order to achieve its intended purpose of forcing savers around the world to spend the taxed product of their labor, one thing has to be abolished: cash. This explains the recent flurry of articles in outlets such as BBG and the FT, and op-eds by such "established" economists as Larry Summers, all advocating the death of cash, a process which would begin by...

Submitted by SaxoBank's Dembik Christopher via TradingFloor.com, Currency stability is a prerequisite for China's economic transition Defending the yuan is prohibitively expensive – China cannot beat the market Progressive devaluation managed by PBoC is the most probable scenario for 2016 Remember that the country is on the capitalism learning curve Exchange rates will inevitably be a key discussion point at Shanghai G20 China has moved from being a net importer to a net exporter of...

Submitted by SaxoBank's Dembik Christopher via TradingFloor.com, Currency stability is a prerequisite for China's economic transition Defending the yuan is prohibitively expensive – China cannot beat the market Progressive devaluation managed by PBoC is the most probable scenario for 2016 Remember that the country is on the capitalism learning curve Exchange rates will inevitably be a key discussion point at Shanghai G20 China has moved from being a net importer to a net exporter of...

In December 2015, the seven year Joseph cycle ended with a Fed rate hike. These lean years of the Joseph cycle started in December 2008 when the Fed lowered rates to the current level. We think that in the next seven year cycle, even the risk-averse Swiss investors will buy more foreign assets, not only the central bank and speculators. Different crises have passed in the three parts of the world, the U.S. subprime, the euro crisis and the Emerging Markets crisis. The last one culminated...

In December 2015, the seven year Joseph cycle ended with a Fed rate hike. These lean years of the Joseph cycle started in December 2008 when the Fed lowered rates to the current level. We think that in the next seven year cycle, even the risk-averse Swiss investors will buy more foreign assets, not only the central bank and speculators. Different crises have passed in the three parts of the world, the U.S. subprime, the euro crisis and the Emerging Markets crisis. The last one culminated...

Comme pour l’alcool, l’abus de QE est dangereux pour l’économie! Pour être honnête, je ne m’attendais pas à une si belle première séance en 2016 : DAX – 4,28 %, CAC – 2,5 %, Nikkei – 3 %, Chine – 7 %, S&P -1,53 % ; mais, contrairement à nombre de mes confrères, je n’en suis pas surpris. J’ai donné à plusieurs reprises en fin d’année mon scenario pour 2016 et force est de constater que les baisses du premier jour de l’année y trouvent bien leur place. Depuis plusieurs mois, les marchés...

Is it August 2015 again? In the first week of January, a spectacular Chinese stock market crash once again prompted officials to provide extraordinary stimulus measures and devalue the yuan. Just as before, gyrations in China pushed global markets deep into risk-off mode, with selloffs in Asian, European, and U.S. equities, as well as crude oil futures. The resolution is likely to be the same as it was last August, too, according to Kasper Bartholdy, Head of Emerging Market Fixed Income...

Voilà plusieurs années que nous nous posons des questions au sujet de la politique non conventionnelle de la direction de la BNS et de ses éventuelles accointances avec le monde des marchés financiers, spécialement ceux des Etats-Unis. Cette interrogation est d’autant plus importante que la BNS tourne clairement le dos à la Suisse, ses emplois, et au pouvoir d’achat de ses citoyens. La BNS serait une personne physique que l’on se poserait la question sur une éventuelle pathologie de...

It was a miserable week that ended a miserable year, followed by an apparently bad first week in 2016. In fact it was the S&P 500’s worst since the start of the bull market in 2009, ending the year down 0.73% at 2043.94 points! Volume was seasonally very low. If you are frustrated with the stock market’s performance, I can well understand it, but if you look at the video (Ctrl + Click) below, “Ouch! 5 CEOs lost a combined $20 billion in 2015!”, you may be comforted to see that Warren...

Remontera? Remontera pas? Remontera quand? Et s’il ne remontait pas?… Chacun y va de ses graphiques plus complexes les uns que les autres pour expliquer et prévoir l’évolution du prix du pétrole…. Essayons de voir les choses de manière pragmatique et simplifiée mais en introduisant la complexité nouvelle des données d’un monde muté. La mutation radicale du Système fait que les raisonnements qui étaient autrefois valables ne le sont plus aujourd’hui ou le sont moins. Voilà notre hypothèse....