Tag Archives: Poland

Overview: The capital markets seemed to have an exaggerated response to the US CPI, where the headline rate, flattered by the rise in energy, rose by 0.1% in September than forecast. Rather than decline, the headline year-over-year rate was unchanged at 3.7%. The core rate was as expected slowing to 4.1% from 4.3%. Next week's US data, including retail sales, industrial production, existing home sales, and the index of leading economic indicators are expected to...

Overview: Dramatic yen price action around the JOLTS report yesterday after the dollar pierced the JPY150 level spurred speculation of BOJ intervention. Although there has been no confirmation, the strategic ambiguity is helping steady the yen and the dollar more broadly today, even though US yields remain firm. Final PMI readings were a better than the flash estimates and this may also be facilitating the consolidative tone. Most promising, from a technical point...

Overview: Although the US January CPI was in line with expectations, the year-over-year rate was a little firmer than expected. Still, the measure that Fed Chair Powell has underscored, core services, excluding shelter, moderated with a 0.3% month-over-month gain. US rates shot up and this lent the dollar support, while weighing on equities and risk sentiment. The US two-year note yield rose to almost 4.64% yesterday, the highest in three months. The greenback is...

Overview: The situation in central Europe is still intense but it appears top US, European and Polish officials are more reluctant than some market participants to attribute the darkest of intentions and paint extreme narratives. The Polish zloty has recovered around 1.3% today and other central European currencies are also trading firmer to lead the emerging market currencies. The US dollar is broadly weaker against the G10 currencies. The large Asia Pacific bourses...

There are three potential inflection points. The first is a pause from the Fed; if nothing else, Powell signaled it was too early to think about it. The second is for the Bank of Japan to change monetary policy. Governor Kuroda has signaled that it is not time. Conventional wisdom is there will not be a change until Kuroda's term ends next April. However, we note that the surveys suggest economists and BOJ inflation forecasts for next year have converged. The third...

Overview: The resignation of a UK prime minister makes for high political drama, but the markets hardly moved on it. Sterling, like most of the major currencies, are recovering against the dollar today. UK equities are higher but are not really outperforming their peers. Asia Pacific bourses rallied, with Taiwan leading the way with a 2.5% surge. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is up 1.4% after yesterday’s 1.65% gain. US futures are around 0.25%-0.35% better. Benchmark bond...

Goodreads rating 4.19. A sweeping novel of 950 pages (!) which starts on page 960. The Nobel laureate describes hundreds of characters, with even more names; immerses in countless locations, languages, and creeds. Her protagonists always remain strangers. There is something wonderful in being a stranger, in being foreign, something to be relished, something as alluring as candy. It is good not to be able to understand a language, not to know the customs, to glide like a spirit among...

Overview:  The global capital markets give little indication of the important economic and earnings data that lie ahead this week.  There is an eerie calm. Equities in Asia were mixed.  Japan and Hong Kong, and most small bourses were lower.  Last week, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained almost 0.9%. Europe's Stoxx 600 is little changed after rising about 0.5% last week. US futures are firm.  The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials reached record-highs before the...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.07% to 1.0717 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 11(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Equities are softer and yields higher to start the new week. The dollar is mixed. Oil and industrial metals are higher. There are several developments over the weekend, but the focus seems to be on central bank action, inflation reports by the US and China, and the start of the Q3...

 Overview: The US dollar remains firm ahead of the July CPI release, and even though Chicago Fed Evans demurred from the hawkish talk, the market is getting more comfortable with the idea of a rate hike next year.   The implied yield of the December 2022 Eurodollar futures is rising for the sixth consecutive session.  Most emerging market currencies are also under pressure.  The JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index edged up yesterday to snap a five-day drop but...