Tag Archives: newslettersent

Swiss Franc Speculators were net short CHF in January 2015, shortly before the end of the peg, with 26.4K contracts. Then again in December 2015, when they expected a Fed rate hike, with 25.5K contracts. The biggest short CHF, however, happened in June 2007, when speculators were net short 80K contracts. Shortly after, the U.S. subprime crisis started. The carry trade against CHF collapsed. The...

While few will be trading in the week between Christmas and New Years, we thought it might be helpful to review the dollar’s technical condition.  We make two overall points. First, although the dollar’s rally strengthened and extended after the November US election, this leg up of the dollar’s longer-term rally began at the end of Q3.  The anticipation of new policies by the Trump Administration, part of the story,...

Stock Markets EM gained some limited traction as last week ended.  However, renewed concerns about China could limit this bounce as President Xi signaled the possibility that growth could fall below the government’s 6.5% target.  China PMI readings out this coming weekend will be the first snapshot of December.  Markets are likely to become more sensitive to Chinese data going forward. Stock Markets Emerging Markets...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, December 22(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge GBP/CHF rates have dipped over the past week, as the markets start to slowdown ahead of the Christmas period. Market trends become harder to predict at this time of year, due to the fact there is less capital injected by investors. Less liquidity ultimately equals less stability and the Pound may be suffering due...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, December 22(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge GBP/CHF rates have dipped over the past week, as the markets start to slowdown ahead of the Christmas period. Market trends become harder to predict at this time of year, due to the fact there is less capital injected by investors. Less liquidity ultimately equals less stability and the Pound may be suffering due...

It’s finally coming. Inflation. President-Elect Donald Trump’s promised a whole lot of infrastructure spending, raising the prospects for a great slug of price pressure the likes of which we haven’t seen in years. Analysts’ forecasts and financial markets show a dramatic shift in view on the outlook for inflation. These charts show some metrics worth watching. Investors have raised bets on a price pickup. Inflation’s...

if you create and distribute money only in the apex of the wealth/power pyramid, it can only benefit the few rather than the many. There are numerous debates about money: what it is, how we measure it, and so on. In recognition of these debates, I’m referring to “money” in quotes to designate that I’m using the Federal Reserve’s measure of money stock (MZM). Nowadays, “money” is often credit. We buy stuff not with...

If you haven’t had a chance to go Christmas shopping don’t despair, gifts destroy value. For example, someone on a diet is unlikely to place much value on a box of chocolates. The difference between what was paid for the chocolates and what the recipient would have paid represents destroyed value. They could have been left on the shelf for someone who would have fully valued them. Economists call this deadweight loss. ©...

Kosten eines Vollgeld-Systems sind hoch Eine Umsetzung der Vollgeld-Initiative würde grossen Schaden anrichten und dürfte im Ergebnis selbst die Initianten enttäuschen. Verbesserungen verspricht dagegen eine «sanfte» Reform: die Einführung von elektronischem SNB-Geld für alle. Der Präsident des Vereins Monetäre Modernisierung Hansruedi Weber (Mitte) und zwei verkleidete Aktivisten reichen im Dezember 2015 bei der...

Kosten eines Vollgeld-Systems sind hoch Eine Umsetzung der Vollgeld-Initiative würde grossen Schaden anrichten und dürfte im Ergebnis selbst die Initianten enttäuschen. Verbesserungen verspricht dagegen eine «sanfte» Reform: die Einführung von elektronischem SNB-Geld für alle. Der Präsident des Vereins Monetäre Modernisierung Hansruedi Weber (Mitte) und zwei verkleidete Aktivisten reichen im Dezember 2015 bei der...