Gold Price In GBP Rises 4% On Brexit and UK Economy Risks – Pound fell 2% against gold yesterday after Theresa May created Brexit concerns – May’s ‘Hard Brexit’ denial does not calm markets growing fears – Investors concerned about lack of government strategy and uncertainty – UK Prime Minister bizarrely blames media and “those who print things” for sterling depreciation – GBP gold builds on 31% gain in 2016 with 4%...
Read More »Swiss Franc exchange rates receive double boost from UK uncertainty (Joshua Privett)
The Pound has had its worst day in two months yesterday, with exchange rates against most of its major currencies now reaching a two month low, and Swiss Franc exchange rates reaching down to the much dearer end of the 1.20’s once more. Theresa May’s comments yesterday were inflammatory but still fairly vague. She gave little away but markets were all collectively worried enough about the potential reaction that this...
Read More »SNB announces 24 bn CHF profit for 2016 thanks to rising stock markets.
The Swiss National Bank has announced 24 bn profits for 2016. Profits came from the dollar, yen and Canadian dollar, while the pound retreated by 15%. The EUR/CHF is only slightly weaker, mostly because the SNB actively supported the euro. SNB profits on USD, CAD and JPY, loses on GBP (see more posts on British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Japanese yen, SNB profit, US dollar, )FX rates for USD, JPY, EUR, GBP in 2016 with...
Read More »Swiss Retail Sales 0.2 percent nominal (YoY) and 0.4 percent real (YoY)
The Used Goods Question Retail sales in several countries like Germany, Italy, Japan and Switzerland continue to fall. In the United States they have strongly risen recently. We should remind readers, that used goods sold via Ebay or similar, are not contained in this statistics. Still they create economic value for the purchases. By mentality, Swiss, Germans or Japanese pay more attention so that used goods do not...
Read More »FX Daily, January 09: Sterling Pounded by May’s Hard Brexit
Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, January 09(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge I am reading a lot about the pound in 2017 which is likely to be as volatile as in 2016. But the Franc is a harder beast to predict. Loosely tracking the euro but subject to its own rules and trends GBPCHF could be an interesting pair to watch in 2017. There are numerous global events which can shape the...
Read More »Why Don’t the U.S. Dollar and Bitcoin Drop to Their Tangible Value, i.e. Zero?
If we refuse to recognize the high utility value of USD and its global ease of flow, then we will continue to misunderstand the demand for the dollar and its appreciation. I have covered the many reasons why the U.S. dollar (USD) has strengthened in dozens of posts over the past 5 years, (Could the U.S. Dollar Rise 50%?, January 12, 2011), and I described the positive dynamics of bitcoin last summer in An Everyman’s...
Read More »Risk Reward Analysis for Financial Markets
We focus this video regarding the potential upside for stocks versus the considerable downside risk for investors. All Technical Analysis is flawed and backward looking, it is a Critical Thinking flaw to extrapolate the future from the most recent past. I want to know the next market move, and not still be stuck on the most recent market move. And the most important fact of all is valuations, stocks are in a bubble...
Read More »FX Weekly Review, January 02 – 07: Is the corrective phase of the dollar over?
Swiss Franc Currency Index The Swiss Franc Index has lost 1% over the course of the last month, while the dollar index improved by 2%. Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, January 07(see more posts on Swiss Franc Index, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge Swiss Franc Currency Index (3 years) The Swiss Franc index is the trade-weighted currency performance (see the currency basket)On a three years...
Read More »Why Profits Are Faltering
Profits are faltering for structural reasons that are not easily resolved.. The bedrock assumption of the Bull market is that corporate profits will keep rising indefinitely. Hiccups are allowed, but current stock market valuations are implicitly based on profits expanding. The fly in the ointment here is corporate profits have been stagnating since 2014. Here is the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) chart of pre-tax...
Read More »A Trade Deal Trump Cannot Improve
Worst in Class BALTIMORE – People can believe whatever they want. But sooner or later, real life intervenes. We just like to see the looks on their faces when it does. By that measure, 2017 may be our best year ever. Rarely have so many people believed so many impossible things. Alice laughed. “There’s no use trying,” she said: “one can’t believe impossible things.” “I daresay you haven’t had much practice,” said...
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