Tag Archives: newslettersent

Summary: US refinery demand for oil is near a 30-year high. Demand growth will help catch up to supply. Saudi Arabia (and Kuwait) appear to have cut more output than promised. - Click to enlarge Oil prices rallied yesterday following the EIA weekly data and are up further today.  Despite the rise in US inventories (4.1 mln barrels) more than four times greater than expected, participants focused on other details. ...

  A Soaring Market On January 20 2017 Donald Trump will be sworn in as the new president of the United States. On the stock market his victory has triggered a lot of advance cheer already: the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by a sizable 7.80 percent between the election and the turn of the year. Many investors are now wondering what effect the change in government will have on stock prices in the new...

These eight forces are structural, and cannot be erased by tax cuts or policy tweaks. If there is any economic assumption that goes unquestioned, it’s the notion that profits will remain robust for the foreseeable future. This assumption ignores the tidal forces that are now flowing against profits. Any discussion of corporate profits must start by noting the astonishing rise in U.S. corporate profits since the...

Summary: All of China’s capital outflows are not capital flight fleeing. Capital controls limiting outflows can be tightened. Paying down dollar loans, a major source of capital outflows, is not an infinite process. News that China’s reserves approached $3 trillion at the end of the last year has spurred expressions of concern. Its reserves have fallen by roughly $1 trillion since peaking mid-2014. The irony...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, January 11 (see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge The pound has seen a sharp fall following the interview that Theresa May gave with Sky news on Sunday although there has been a small rebound this afternoon. GBP CHF exchange rates are hovering around 1.2350 for this pair. The pound fell sharply in morning trade but has since recovered as there still remains a...

Prince, RIP, owned gold bars worth just over $800,000 according to the statement filed in a Minnesota court last Friday. At the time of his death, Prince had taken delivery of and had in his possession 67 gold bars, 10 ounce gold bars, valued at $836,166.70. That’s according to an asset inventory compiled by Bremer Trust released by the Carver County District Court, as first reported by the Minneapolis Star Tribune....

The US 10-year yield fell briefly below 1.32% last July. The yield slowly rose to reach 1.80% in mid-October. The day after the election, the yield initially slipped to almost 1.71%. This was a bit of a miscue, and the yield rose sharply to hit almost 2.64% the day after the FOMC hiked rates for the second time in the cycle on December 14. The yield backed off to hit 2.33% at the end of last week. The difference between...

Unemployment Rate (not seasonally adjusted) According to the SECO surveys, 159,372 unemployed were registered at the Regional Employment Centers (RAV) at the end of December 2016, 10,144 more than in the previous month. The unemployment rate thus rose from 3.3% in November 2016 to 3.5% in the reporting month. Switzerland Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted December 2016(see more posts on Switzerland...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, January 10(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge Sterling is on the ropes following Brexit comments made by UK Prime Minister Theresa May over the weekend. It’s been a tough day’s trading for any clients holding the Pound with losses against all of the  major currencies. GBP/CHF rates have dropped by a cent and a half with the pair now trading in the mid 1.23’s,...

Summary: Part of the US Republican tax reforms call for a border adjustment. It will tax imports fully and not exports. This will likely be challenged at the WTO. Many economists say the dollar will automatically appreciate by 20%. WE are bullish the dollar but skeptical of the logic here. While hearings on US President-elect Trump’s nominees will begin this week, the Republicans are preparing dramatic changes...