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The downward revision to 3Q GDP will make the Italian government’s targets more difficult to achieve and complicate the budget debate with Europe. The Italian statistical office’s (ISTAT) final reading showed that the economy shrank 0.1% q-o-q (-0.5% q-o-q annualised) in Q3, whereas a preliminary reading on October 30 showed that growth was flat. The details were quite negative and confirmed the idiosyncrasy of the...

© Convisum | Dreamstime.com The latest figures show that Swiss salaries have not kept up with inflation. An average Swiss salary rose 0.4% in 2017, compared to inflation of 0.5%. This left the average salary earner 0.1% worse off in real terms over the year. The figures were the same for both the secondary and tertiary sectors. The rise in 2017 (+0.4%) was the same as 2016 (+0.4%) but less than 2015 (+0.5%) and 2014...

To be sure, the Dollar Index is not the dollar. It is not even a trade-weighted measure of the dollar. Two of America’s largest trading partners, China and Mexico, are not represented. It is heavily weighted to the euro and currencies that move in its orbit, like the Swiss franc Swedish krona, and arguably the British pound. It is primarily a speculative vehicle. Very few investors or businesses have exposure that...

By the time things got really bad, China’s economy had already been slowing for a long time. The currency spun out of control in August 2015, and then by November the Chinese central bank was in desperation mode. The PBOC had begun to peg SHIBOR because despite so much monetary “stimulus” in rate cuts and a lower RRR banks were hoarding RMB liquidity. Late 2015 was not a fun time in China. The idea of economic...

What is inflation? Any layman can tell you—and nearly everyone uses it this way in informal speech—that inflation is rising prices. Some will say “due to devaluation of the money.” Economists will say, no it’s not rising prices per se. That is everywhere and always the effect. The cause, the inflation as such, is an increase in the quantity of money. Which is the same thing as saying devaluation. It is assumed that each...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.14% at 1.1262 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, December 03(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The US and China kept their trade guns cocked at each other but offered the last opportunity for a negotiated settlement before escalation. What is billed as a 90-day freeze on tariff increases is really only 60 days beyond January 1...

03.12.2018 – Turnover in the retail sector rose by 1.2% in nominal terms in October 2018 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover rose by 1.9% compared with the previous month. These are provisional findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). Real turnover in the retail sector also adjusted for sales days and holidays rose by 0.8% in October 2018 compared with the previous year....

Third quarter Swiss GDP figures released yesterday show Switzerland’s economy shrank compared to the quarter before. ©-Tobias-Arhelger-_-Dreamstime.com_ - Click to enlarge GDP for the quarter to September was down by 0.2% compared to the quarter before, ending an 18-month run of quarterly growth. The fall in Swiss GDP follows a quarterly slowdown across the rest of Europe, in Germany in particular. A fall in the output...

Overview: There is an eerie calm in the capital markets today as the G20 meeting gets underway. There is much uncertainty, and the event calendar is chock full next week, with the Brexit debate getting underway in the UK Parliament, the CDU picks a new leader to replace Merkel, possible partial US government closure, Powell’s testimony before Congress, OPEC+ meeting, and US employment data. In Asia, the rise of Japanese...

The fact that lies and cover stories are now the official norm only makes us love our servitude with greater devotion. We can summarize the current era in one sentence: truth is what we hide, self-serving cover stories are what we sell. Jean-Claude Juncker’s famous quote captures the essence of the era: “When it becomes serious, you have to lie.” And when does it become serious? When the hidden facts of the matter might...