Tag Archives: newsletter

The step away from the edge of the abyss may have stirred the animal spirits, but it remains precarious at best. The formal withdrawal of the extradition bill in Hong Kong is too late and too little at this juncture. The ambitions of the protests have evolved well beyond that. Italy has a new government, but a prolonged honeymoon is unlikely for this unlikely union. Face-to-face talks between the US and China are better than no talks but hardly indicates an end to...

Despite some positive developments last week, we think the three key issues for risk assets have not been resolved yet.  Hong Kong protests continue, while reports suggest the US and China remain far apart.  Even Brexit has likely been given only a three month reprieve.  We remain negative on EM until these key issues have been ultimately resolved.  China reports August money and loan data this week but no data has been set.  With the recently announced cuts in...

. SNBs Jordan on the wires The Swiss national banks Jordan is on the wires saying: He cannot say how long negative interest rates will last Negative rates are necessary for now Interest rate spreads like important role for exchange rates The USDCHF is trading higher today. It currently trades at 0.9861. The 100 hour moving average stalled the rally at 0.98737 today. The 200 hour moving average at 0.98479 was rebroken to the upside earlier. That is now support....

If these three charts reflect a “normal” “healthy” Bull market, then why are they so uncommon? The implicit narrative of the latest rally in stocks is that this is just another normal rally in the ongoing 10-year long Bull market. Nice, but do these three charts look “normal” to you? Let’s take a quick glance at a daily chart of the S&P 500 (SPX), a weekly chart of TLT, the exchange-traded fund of the US Treasury 20-year bond, and silver. In other words, let’s...

Recently, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) unveiled the new 100 franc banknote. Only one note missing – © Janusz Pieńkowski | Dreamstime.com The note’s design is inspired by Switzerland’s tradition of humanitarianism, represented on the note by water. The note remains blue but is much smaller than the existing one, making it easier to fit into wallets. The note is the last one in Switzerland’s ninth series of notes to be updated. Updating the series began in April 2016...

Federal Reserve policymakers appear to have grown more confident in their more optimistic assessment of the domestic situation. Since cutting the benchmark federal funds range by 25 bps on July 31, in speeches and in other ways Chairman Jay Powell and his group have taken on a more “hawkish” tilt. This isn’t all the way back to last year’s rate hikes, still a pronounced difference from a few months ago. The common forecast relies entirely on the subjective...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.79% to 1.0905 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, September 06(see more posts on EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Investors hope that the world took a step away from the abyss in recent days. Developments in Hong Kong, US-China talking, a political and economic crisis in Italy appears to have been averted, and a risk of a no-deal Brexit has lessened. Asia Pacific equities closed the week...

Thomas Jordan, Präsident des Direktoriums der Schweizerischen Nationalbank, in einem früheren Interview mit cash. Die Schweizerische Nationalbank (SNB) misst Kryptowährungen wie Bitcoin wenig Potenzial zu. Die Chancen darauf, als Zahlungsmittel akzeptiert zu werden, sind aus Sicht der Zentralbank gering. Kryptowährungen hätten “eher den Charakter von spekulativen Anlageinstrumenten als von ‘gutem’ Geld”, sagte der SNB-Präsident in einer Rede an der Universität...

US/Sino trade teams will consult in mid-September with a view for a meeting in Washington in early October. USD/CHF is currently trading 0.26% higher and bouning of trend-line support.  The announcement that trade talks are back on track as given the markets the extra fuel needed to recover with respect to risk appetite. Currencies, such as the Yn and CHF, would otherwise benefit from investment, but in such a case that a trade deal could eventually emerge from the...

Any domino-like expanding crisis will unfold in a status quo lacking any coherent response. Longtime readers know I’ve often referenced The Fourth Turning, the book that makes the case for an 80-year cycle of existential crisis in U.S. history. The first crisis was the constitutional process (1781) following the end of the Revolutionary War, whether the states could agree on a federal structure; the 2nd crisis was the Civil War (1861) and the 3rd crisis was global...