Tag Archives: newsletter

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.06% to 1.1006 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 16(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Fading hopes that a Brexit agreement can be struck is seeing sterling trade broadly lower, while China’s demand that US tariffs be rescinded in exchange for a commitment to buy $40-$50 bln of US agriculture goods over two years, makes the handshake agreement less secure. At the same...

Maybe it’s my cheap seat or my general exhaustion, but the whole staged spectacle is beyond tiresome; I’ve had my fill. Let me me know when it’s over: yes, all of it: the impeachment, the trade dispute with China, U.S. involvement in Syria, the manic stock market rally and the 2020 election. I’m not interested in following every twist and turn of the endless trauma-drama because none of it changes anything: Swapping Pence for Trump changes nothing, and then swapping...

Die Schweizer Pensionskassen halten rund 30% ihrer Anlagen in klassischen Obligationen. Die meisten dieser Anleihen weisen eine negative Rendite aus. Dies, weil die Kurse so stark gestiegen sind, dass sich auf deren hohem Niveau trotz positivem Coupon (Nominalzins) eine Rendite auf Verfall von unter null ergibt. Das heisst, dass die erwarteten Kursverluste die Zinserträge übersteigen. So weist beispielsweise die 4% Anleihe der Eidgenossenschaft, welche ihre...

Well…maybe some NA traders The US has a partial holiday with the bond market closed but the US stock markets open. Canada is off for Thanksgiving. So North American traders entering for the day, may be a little stretch today. However, the forex market is open. The CHF is the strongest as some of the euphoria from the events of last week (Brexit hope and China/US) fade and there is a flight into the safety of the CHF (and JPY). The GBP is the weakest as EU’s Barnier...

Credit Suisse CEO Tidjane Thiam and chairman Urs Rohner (Keystone) When Tidjane Thiam arrived at the helm of Credit Suisse in the summer of 2015, he was a hero. Plucked from the same role at UK insurer Prudential, where he had doubled the share price in six years, he had big plans to shrink the Swiss group’s investment bank, slash costs, raise fresh capital and expand in Asia. He was one of four high-flying financiers parachuted in to run four of Europe’s biggest...

Bitcoin – An Exceptional Asset When I first heard about Bitcoin (BTC) in May 2011, it was trading at 8 US dollars. Today, more than eight years later, BTC trades at around 8,000 dollars. A thousandfold increase! An investment of 1,000 dollars at the time would have resulted in a gain of more than a million  –  a dream result. However, even an exceptional asset such as Bitcoin has its ups and downs – inter alia in terms of its seasonal patterns. And an exceptional...

  True Money Supply Growth Rebounds in September In August 2019 year-on-year growth of the broad true US money supply (TMS-2) fell to a fresh 12-year low of 1.87%. The 12-month moving average of the growth rate hit a new low for the move as well. The main driver of the slowdown in money supply growth over the past year was the Fed’s decision to decrease its holdings of MBS and treasuries purchased in previous “QE” operations. This was partly offset by bank credit...

Some cracks have appeared in the market’s risk-on sentiment We continue to believe that recent developments take some pressure off the Fed to cut rates again this month Our base case for a Brexit delay has been strengthened; UK reported weak labor market data The situation is Turkey continues to develop negatively for asset prices; trade data out of China once again showed the impact of the trade war and the resulting global slowdown RBA minutes were released; Japan...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.16% to 1.0977 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 15(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Ideas that a Brexit deal may be close is helping to firm sterling, while soft Chinese PPI offset the spike in food prices to show the weakness of the world’s second-largest economy. Minutes from the meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia earlier this month kept a door open to a...

The Producer Price Index (PPI) or officially named “Producer and Import Price Index” describes the changes in prices for producers and importers. For us it is interesting because it is used in the formula for the Real Effective Exchange Rate. When producers and importers profit on lower price changes when compared to other countries, then the Swiss Franc reduces its overvaluation. The Swiss PPI values of -6% in 2015 (see below), compared to -3% in Europe or -1% in...