Tag Archives: newsletter

TANSTAAFL is an acronym for “There ain’t no such thing as a free lunch”. It has been around a long time – Rudyard Kipling used it in an essay in 1891 – but it was popularized by Robert Heinlein’s 1966 book, “The Moon is a Harsh Mistress”. In economics it most often refers to tradeoffs or opportunity costs; resources are scarce and if you choose to use them in one way they aren’t available for an alternate use. The other way the phrase is often used is to describe a...

On Thursday May 12, the price of silver fell about a buck. As with every one of these big price moves, the question is: what really happened? Below is a chart of the day’s action, with price overlaid with basis. Basis = future – spot. It is a great (i.e. the only) indicator of abundance or scarcity of metal to the market. However, here we are using it for a different, simpler purpose. We want to see the relative moves in the spot price and the near futures contract...

Money velocity’s role in forcing up prices is misunderstood because today’s monetary “authorities” fail to consider how new money is injected into the economy. Original Article: “The Fed Gets It Wrong on Money Velocity, Too” “Inflation” is on everyone’s lips. Commentators and politicians are quick to point out the perpetrators. It is said that climate change is the cause of rising prices or that a specific war maker is to blame. A popular opinion holds that...

Business trips are very different these days. It was a wonderful and intense week, but nothing beats coming back home with bags full of supplies! Day 79 May 13 The very real price Ukrainians are paying for other people’s imperial delusions: survivors of the Kramatorsk train station bombing. More than 30 people were killed, and more than 100 injured among about 1000 people waiting to be evacuated from the city.  ...

A major conference on cyber security took place in Switzerland last month with participants from the US government. © Keystone/Anthony Anex Defence Minister Viola Amherd has held talks with United States government representatives on international security cooperation. Amherd said the Russian invasions of Ukraine made it clear that Switzerland should seek closer cooperation, including the US, she told a news conference in Washington on Friday. But she reiterated that...

The casino has become complex and there are no easy answers or predictable paths. The Wall Street herd had it easy from 2009 to 2021. Life was simple and life was good: markets were easy to predict. As long as the Federal Reserve kept interest rates near-zero and increased its balance sheet to buy Treasury bonds, the stock market rose. As long as the Fed increased its balance sheet to buy mortgage-backed securities, housing rose. If the Fed tried to reduce its...

Monetary Metals is growing, and we’re looking for our next key hire: Associate Account Manager. We’re giving an ounce of gold to whoever refers the successful candidate. If you know the perfect candidate for this role, please follow these instructions: Email [email protected] with “I have a Golden Candidate” in the subject line In the body of the email include: Your name, email address, and phone number Applicant’s name, email address,...

Dealing with specific geopolitical circumstances can be messy. We may disagree on the facts and on which sources are reliable, making it hard to make any headway in a discussion. This may be further compounded by extreme emotions we may have about that situation. The advantage of purely theoretical inquiry is that we can stipulate the facts so as to make the analysis as simple as possible, and avoid much of the emotional baggage that stymies understanding. Once we...

For once, I find myself in agreement with a mainstream article published over at Bloomberg. Notable Fed supporters without fail, this one maybe represents a change in tone. Perhaps the cheerleaders are feeling the heat and are seeking Jay Powell’s exit for him? Whatever the case, there’s truth to what’s written if only because interest rates haven’t been rising based on rising inflation/growth expectations. Quite the contrary, actually. It’s all FOMC and the...

(On vacation for the rest of the month.  Going to Portugal.  Commentary will resume on June 1.   Good luck to us all.)The market is a fickle mistress. The major central banks were judged to be behind the inflation curve. Much teeth-gashing, finger-pointing. Federal Reserve Chair Powell was blamed for denying that a 75 bp hike was under consideration. Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda was blamed for keeping the 0.25% cap on the 10-year Japanese Government Bond yield....