Tag Archives: Macroview

GDP shows economic performance is somewhere between what hard and soft data are suggesting.According to Eurostat’s preliminary flash estimate released today, euro area real GDP expanded by 0.5% q-o-q in Q1 2017 (+0.455% q-o-q; 1.8% q-o-q annualised; 1.7% y-o-y), slightly above consensus expectations (0.4%). This flash estimate confirms that most business confidence surveys overestimated growth at the beginning of the year, with the ‘true pace’ of economic expansion lying somewhere in between...

After soft GDP in first quarter, we expect a significant rebound in the current quarter. The underlying strength of the US economy remains intact.US GDP growth decelerated from 2.8% in H2 2016 to 0.7% quarter on quarter (q-o-q) annualised in Q1, slightly below consensus expectations (1.0%). However, this weak reading is mainly due to statistical anomalies (growth tends to be lower in Q1) and transitory factors that weighed on consumer spending and stockbuilding. However, fixed investment...

The Pictet Group is proud to present its Annual Review of activites for 2016, covering Pictet Wealth Management, Pictet Asset Management and Pictet Asset Services.We are pleased to introduce the Annual Review of the  Pictet Group for 2016 — my first as Senior Partner. After I assumed the role on 1 July  last year, I was asked if Pictet’s strategic direction would change. The Senior Partner is,  by tradition, chair and primus inter pares of  the board of partners, only assuming  the position...

Available data point towards 0.5% GDP growth in the euro area in the first quarter.France and Spain today became the first big countries in the euro area to publish GDP growth figures for Q1. French real GDP expanded by 0.3% q-o-q in Q1 2017, down from +0.5% q-o-q in Q4, and lower than what was expected by the consensus.The details were more encouraging than the headline figure. In particular, investment accelerated sharply. Some of the weaknesses in private consumption were explained by...

The ECB remains dovish, but a reassessment of its plans for exiting quantitative easing could come later this year and hikes in the deposit rate in 2018 if core inflation data improve.The European Central Bank left policy and forward guidance unchanged at today’s meeting notwithstanding the “increasingly solid” recovery and “diminished” downside risks to the outlook. Our impression is that there is a strong consensus to “finish the job” by keeping the monetary stance very accommodative until...

China’s Q1 GDP higher than forecasts, but we maintain our view that growth will start to slip, especially in the second half of 2017.Chinese GDP grew 6.9% year-over-year (y-o-y) in real terms in Q1 2017, up from 6.8% in Q4 2016 and 6.7% for the full year of 2016. The strong  growth figure beats both the consensus forecast (6.8%) and our own estimate (6.7%).  In nominal terms, the rise in GDP was even more significant, growing 11.8% over the year to March 31, mainly driven by higher prices...

The April Bank Lending Survey remains consistent with the ECB leaving its stance unchanged on credit conditions, negative rates and QE.Credit standards on loans to euro area enterprises eased in Q1, according to the ECB’s Bank Lending Survey (BLS), released today. Although banks expect a small net tightening of credit standards across all loan categories in Q2, credit conditions remain broadly favourable in the euro area.Demand for credit continued to rise in Q1, albeit at a slower pace than...

The market implications of Emmanuel Macron’s win are likely to prove positive but short lived as the focus will quickly shift to the legislative elections in June.The first round of the French presidential election has come as a relief for markets as a pro-European, reformist candidate came first and now looks very likely to win the second round. For once, opinion polls were fairly accurate in capturing voting intentions and last-minute momentum. But the result of the first round is not...

Strong Flash PMI surveys for April indicate that output growth is accelerating in the euro area.Euro area PMI surveys surprised to the upside in April. The composite flash PMI surged to 56.7 in April from 56.4 in March, above consensus expectations (56.4). Overall, April’s composite PMI is consistent with euro area GDP growth of 0.7% quarter over quarter (q-o-q) in Q2, up from 0.6% in Q1 and higher than our forecasts. Other national surveys and hard data have been more mixed, suggesting that...

While our central scenario discounts the possibility of Marine Le Pen becoming president, her presence in the second round of the presidential election is likely to create considerable nervousness for investors.Our main scenario, a win for a Europhile politician in the second round of the French presidential elections in May, could result in a small relief rally on markets. However, the National Front’s Marine Le Pen is seen as being one of the two candidates to go through from the first...