Tag Archives: inflation

The US dollar rally is of historic proportions. Its climb is relentless, though there was around a 4-7% pullback for a few weeks beginning in mid-July. Since then, the greenback has made up for lost time and appreciated to multiyear highs against most of the major currencies. The first real bout of profit-taking in nearly a month seen in recent days looks corrective in nature.   The different performances cannot be entirely traced to monetary policy differences,...

One of the reasons people choose to invest in gold bullion or to buy silver coins is because they are simple and they are finite; basically the opposite of fiat currency. The complexity of fiat-driven markets and infinite possibilities to create money works to the advantage of central banks. . And they particularly like to take advantage when asked by the general public a very obvious question… Central banks are on the defensive over printing too much money during...

Overview: The dollar is having one of the largest setbacks in recent weeks. We expected the dollar to soften ahead of next week’s CPI, which may fan ideas/hopes of a peak in US price pressures, but the magnitude and speed of the move is surprising, and likely speaks to the extreme positioning. Still, we caution that the intraday momentum indicators are stretched, and the underlying bullish sentiment, may see North American operators take advantage of the dollar’s...

Die Inflation im Euroland und in den USA ist ähnlich hoch. Um sie zu bekämpfen, müsste die Europäische Zentralbank daher gleich energisch vorgehen wie die US-Notenbank. Doch ihre Lage ist verzwickter: Überschuldete Länder in der Peripherie, der Öl- und Gaspreisschock und der serbelnde Euro sind enorme Hindernisse. Was wird die EZB diesen Donnerstag und in der weiteren Zukunft beschliessen?

It would be easy for those who have decided to buy gold and silver bullion to lose heart over the precious metals, had they seen how prices reacted to Chairman Powell’s comments, last week. However, to do this would be very short-sighted. Whilst Powell may well have signaled that the Fed will stay on this path of tightening this does not mean that they have resolved the issue. Rather, it likely means that the Fed is reacting a little too hard, a little too late and...

Since the summer of 2020, my expectation for the US economy has been that once all the COVID distortions are gone, it would revert to its previous trend growth of around 2%. And that seems to be exactly what is going on with the economy right now. There was a shift in consumption preference during COVID for goods over services with the goods consumption rising well above the pre-COVID trend: . Now, some of that, as we know, is due to inflation so if we correct for...

Die Aussage von Schroders-Chefökonom Keith Wade lässt nichts an Deutlichkeit übrig: "Verabschieden Sie sich von der Idee einer sanften Landung." Eine Analyse vergangener Zyklen zeige, dass es für eine Wirtschaft so spät im Zyklus eine unglaubliche Leistung wäre, die Inflation ohne Rückgang der Wirtschaftstätigkeit oder eine Rezession wieder auf den Zielwert zu bringen.

Overview: The rise in global interest rates continues. The US 10-year yield is a few basis points near 3.15% and European benchmarks are mostly 5-6 bp higher. Of note, the sharp sell-off in UK Gilts has being extended. Yesterday’s 10 bp rise has been followed by another 14 bp surge today. Italian bonds are also getting hit. The 10-year yield is up a little more than 10 bp. The US dollar is mostly firmer against the major currencies, though the yen and Australian...

Die Inflationsrate in Deutschland ist nach kurzer Beruhigung auf 7,9% im August wieder gestiegen. Es ist einer der höchsten Werte überhaupt. Doch das ist nicht alles. Die Frankfurter Fondsgesellschaft Union Investment erwartet im vierten Quartal zweistellige Inflationsraten in Deutschland.

Gregory (Scotland Yard detective): “Is there any other point to which you would wish to draw my attention?” Sherlock Holmes: “To the curious incident of the dog in the night-time.” Gregory: “The dog did nothing in the night-time.” Sherlock Holmes: “That was the curious incident.” From Silver Blaze by Arthur Conan Doyle, 1892 It is hard to determine sometimes what causes markets to move as they do. Take last Friday’s stock market selloff. The widely cited “reason”...