Once again, the dollar was sold into a shallow bounce as the bears maintained the upper hand. There is a growing conviction that the peak in the Fed's tightening cycle is within view, despite more robust than expected jobs growth and an unexpectedly strong rise in average weekly earnings. After rallying through September, the US dollar's pullback was extended last week. Despite the oversold momentum indicators, dollar bounces have proved short and shallow. Falling...
Read More »Week Ahead: RBA and BOC Meetings Featured and China’s Inflation and Trade
The week ahead is more than an interlude before five G10 central banks meet on December 14-15. The data highlights include the US ISM services and producer prices, Chinese trade and inflation measures, Japanese wages, household consumption, and the current account. Also, the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Canada hold policy meetings. Central banks from India, Poland, Brazil, Peru, and Chile also meet.The dollar appreciated in Q1 and Q2 despite the economy...
Read More »The Fed Is Not “a Good Idea that Became Corrupt”: It Always Was Corrupt
There’s an idea rooted among some libertarians that the Federal Reserve was originally a sound institution but has grown corrupt. As a bankers’ bank, it was fine, they believe, but not as the monster it has grown to be. If we could only go back to the Fed’s founding charter, all would be well. I’m thinking of two well-known financial analysts who are unsurpassed in their analytical brilliance and knowledge of markets and who rightly regard the bureaucratic Federal...
Read More »No rise in Switzerland’s rent rate
Every three months the rate of interest used to set the rents in Switzerland is reviewed. If it goes down some renters have the right to request a decrease in rent. If it goes up landlords can push up rents. This time the rate remained at 1.25%, however it looks set to rise next year. The interest rate used to set the reference rate is the average rate on Swiss mortgage loans outstanding at 30 September 2022. The average rate was 1.18%, up from 1.17% from the second...
Read More »Pay rise agreed for Switzerland’s public sector workers
© Robert Buchel | Dreamstime.com On 2 December 2022, Switzerland’s Federal Council agreed to boost the salaries of those working for the federal government by 2.5% in 2023. Inflation, which was 3% at the end of November 2022, has fuelled demands for higher pay. During negotiations, staff representatives pushed for a pay deal that fully made up for inflation. However, finance minister Ueli Maurer pointed out that Switzerland’s already negative budget should be...
Read More »Renewables and EVs in the Grip of Lesseps Syndrome
Most people are familiar with the Panama Canal, but they probably don’t know the first effort to build the Panama Canal, spanning almost a decade, was by France. Facing considerable initial naysaying and ridicule, Ferdinand de Lesseps had the acumen and drive to construct the Suez Canal. Success was realized after overcoming many obstacles and difficulties. Naturally enough, France turned to him to build a sea-level canal in Panama. Minority technical reports...
Read More »Attention turns to US Jobs while the Yen’s Surge Continues
Overview: There have been significant moves in the capital markets this week and participants are turning cautious ahead of the US employment report. After the US equity market rally stalled yesterday, nearly all the Asia Pacific bourses fell today. The strength of the yen (~3.8% this week) has weighed on Japanese equities (Nikkei -1.8% this week) and spurred the BOJ to buy ETFs today for the first time in five months. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is nursing a small loss as...
Read More »Swiss Consumer Price Index in November 2022: +3.0 percent YoY, 0.0 percent MoM
01.12.2022 – The consumer price index (CPI) remained stable in November 2022 compared with the previous month, remaining at 104.6 points (December 2020 = 100). Inflation was +3.0% compared with the same month of the previous year. These are the results of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). The stability of the index compared with the previous month is the result of opposing trends that offset each other overall. Prices for housing rentals, gas and fuels increased,...
Read More »Credit Suisse looks to speed up cuts as revenue outlook worsens
Credit Suisse shares fell to a fresh record low on Thursday © Keystone / Michael Buholzer Swiss bank Credit Suisse is looking for ways to accelerate cost cuts announced just weeks ago as client outflows and a slowdown in activity weigh on its revenue outlook, according to three people with knowledge of the talks. The cost savings are likely to involve more job cuts than previously announced for the first wave of reductions, including in its mainstay wealth...
Read More »Deflation Is Not a Problem: Reversing It Is
The yearly growth rate of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell to 7.7 percent in October from 8.2 percent in September. Note that in October 2021 the yearly growth rate stood at 6.2 percent. Some experts are of the view that it is quite likely that the momentum of the CPI might have peaked. We suggest that the decline in the yearly growth rate of the CPI is from the sharp decline in the momentum of money supply. The yearly growth rate of our monetary measure for the...
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