Tag Archives: Featured

Gold Bullion Erases Post- Election Fall as Trump Wrong on Dollar – Daily Prophet  Robert Burgess of Bloomberg Prophets President Donald Trump sent currency markets into a tizzy late Wednesday when he signaled his preference for a weaker dollar. “I think our dollar is getting too strong, and partially that’s my fault because people have confidence in me,” Trump told the Wall Street Journal. Although the greenback...

Retail sales growth in February 2017 was going to be low by virtue of its comparison to February 2016 and the extra day in that month. The Census Bureau’s autoregressive models are supposed to normalize just these kinds of calendar irregularities so that we can make something close to apples to apples comparisons. The seasonally-adjusted estimate for February, however, was calculated to be less than the one for January...

First quarter GDP in China rose 6.9%, better than expected and above the government’s target (6.5%) for 2017. It stands to reason, however, that if Communist officials thought they could get 6.9% to last for the whole year they would have made it their target, especially since 6.5% would be less than the GDP growth rate for 2016 (6.7%). In only that one way is China’s GDP statistic meaningful. Due to unanswered...

Behind the Curve Economic nonsense comes a dime a dozen.  For example, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen “think(s) we have a healthy economy now.”  She even told the University of Michigan’s Ford School of Public Policy so earlier this week.  Does she know what she’s talking about? Somehow, this cartoon never gets old… - Click to enlarge If you go by a partial subset of the ‘official’ government statistics, perhaps,...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, April 17(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge FX Rates Financial centers in Europe are closed for the extended Easter holiday.  Australian and New Zealand markets were also closed.   The drop in US 10-year Treasury yields in early Asia, with a brief push below 2.20%, appears to have kept the dollar under pressure.    As the North American market prepares to...

In a bizarre series of events that have had limited coverage but which are sure to have far-reaching consequences for benchmark pricing in the precious metals markets, the LBMA Gold Price and LBMA Silver Price auctions both experienced embarrassing trading glitches over consecutive trading days on Monday 10 April and Tuesday 11 April. At the outset, its worth remembering that both of these London-based benchmarks are...

Stock Markets EM FX was mostly firmer last week, helped by Trump comments and softer US data.  Whilst this seems positive for EM, the global backdrop remains uncertain.  Some in EM (Russia, Turkey, and Korea) remain vulnerable to geopolitical concerns. In addition, idiosyncratic domestic political risks remain in play for other EM countries, such as Brazil, South Africa, and Turkey.  We expect the investment climate...

Summary: Monetary policy is off the table for at least the next two months. Several fiscal issues are coming to a head. Despite the GOP majority in Congress and White House, brinkmanship cannot be ruled out. The Federal Reserve hiked rates in March.  Whatever gradual hikes mean, it seems to preclude moves in back-to-back meetings.  There are two chances of a May hike:  Slim and none and Slim left town. June...

As with all statistics, there are discrepancies that from time to time may obscure the meaning or validity of the particular estimate in question. For the vast majority of the time, any such uncertainties amount to very little. Overall, harmony among the major accounts reduces the signal noise from any one featuring a significant inconsistency. There are, of course, various economic areas where estimates are going to...

Summary Malaysia’s central bank said it will allow investors to fully hedge their currency exposure. Egypt declared a 3-month state of emergency after two deadly church attacks. South Africa’s parliamentary no confidence vote has been delayed Argentina central bank surprised markets with a 150 bp hike to 26.25%. Brazil central bank accelerated the easing cycle with a 100 bp cut in the Selic rate. Stock Markets In the...