Tag Archives: EMU

Eurozone The investment meme of a synchronized global upturn has been undermined by the recent string of US and European economic data. The flash March eurozone composite reading fell to 55.3, the lowest reading since January 2017. Although Q4 17 US GDP may be revised higher (toward 2.8% from 2.5%) mostly due to greater inventory accumulation, the curse of weak Q1 GDP appears to be showing its hand again, with...

The new monthly cycle of high frequency economic data has begun. The manufacturing PMI shows the synchronized global recovery is continuing. The service sector and composite PMI will be reported in the week ahead. They are unlikely altering the general expectation for robust growth in Q4. Even the disappointing US auto sales (17.35 mln seasonally-adjusted annual pace vs. expectations for 17.5 mln and 18.0 mln in...

There are a number of events and economic reports in the week ahead that will help shape the investment climate in the weeks and months ahead. In recognition of the importance of initial conditions, let’s briefly summarize the performance of the dollar and main asset markets. After recovering from a five-month decline in September and October, the dollar has lost ground against all the major currencies here in November,...

Introduction by George Dorgan My articles About meMy booksFollow on:TwitterFacebookGoogle +YoutubeSeeking AlphaCFA SocietyLinkedINEconomicBlogs Summary: Bond yields have been rising in the US and Europe since the summer. There are some country-specific considerations and some generalized factors. Anxiety over US politics has helped bonds recover some lost ground. One of the most significant market...

Introduction by George Dorgan My articles About meMy booksFollow on:TwitterFacebookGoogle +YoutubeSeeking AlphaCFA SocietyLinkedINEconomicBlogs Summary: Bond yields have been rising in the US and Europe since the summer. There are some country-specific considerations and some generalized factors. Anxiety over US politics has helped bonds recover some lost ground. One of the most significant market...

Summary: Price pressures appear to have bottomed for the US, UK, and to a lesser extent, EMU. Rise in prices cannot be reduced solely to the increase of oil. Core prices are also rising. Back in the early post-crisis days, many pundits consumed lots of ink and column inches warning the strong inflationary pressures would be fueled by the orthodox and unorthodox monetary policy. Not only did this not...

The last week of April is eventful. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan hold policy meetings.  The UK, eurozone, and the US provide the first estimates of Q1 GDP. Japan, the eurozone, and Australia report consumer prices, while the US updates the Fed’s preferred (targeted) inflation measure, the core deflator of personal consumption expenditures.   These events will not take place in a vacuum.  The backdrop is an improving tone in the global capital...