Tag Archives: Emerging market currencies

Prospects for emerging-market currencies look cloudy. The currencies of countries with sound external buffers and limited exposure to global trade should fare relatively better than others. In recent months, the global environment has become more challenging for EM currencies. Trade tensions have increased and are weighing on economic activity. Commodity prices have also fallen. Such developments tend to weigh on global appetite for relatively risky EM assets. More...

Prospects for emerging-market currencies look cloudy. The currencies of countries with sound external buffers and limited exposure to global trade should fare relatively better than others.In recent months, the global environment has become more challenging for EM currencies. Trade tensions have increased and are weighing on economic activity. Commodity prices have also fallen. Such developments tend to weigh on global appetite for relatively risky EM assets. More hopefully, the global...

The environment will remain challenging for EM currencies next year. Despite a dovish shift by the Fed and the temporary truce in the US-Chinese trade dispute, the global environment remains challenging for emerging market (EM) currencies. In fact, our latest EM FX scorecard, which ranks 10 EM currencies according to key criteria such as growth and vulnerability to external shocks, is still unable to identify a single...

The environment will remain challenging for EM currencies next year.Despite a dovish shift by the Fed and the temporary truce in the US-Chinese trade dispute, the global environment remains challenging for emerging market (EM) currencies. In fact, our latestEM FX scorecard, which ranks 10 EM currencies according to key criteria such as growth and vulnerability to external shocks, is still unable to identify a single attractive EM currency among the 10 it monitors on a 12-month horizon.Being...

Trade tensions could continue to have an impact, but we have a more constructive view on emerging-market currencies than at the start of the year.Despite recent moderation in the US dollar and in the 10-year US Treasury yield, emerging-market (EM) currencies remain under pressure, especially as a result of a recent escalation in trade tensions. Asian currencies have outperformed their emerging peers. The stability of the Chinese renminbi is likely serving as an anchor for Asian currencies,...

Trade tensions are likely to hold the key to the longer-term outlook for EM currencies.Our EM FX scorecard ranks 10 EM currencies according to key criteria such as growth and vulnerability to external shocks. There have been few changes over the past month. The scorecard shows the Brazilian real as the most attractive EM currency over the coming 12 months.EM currencies have generally been weak recently for a combination of reasons. This has led to the relative outperformance of ‘defensive’...

In the coming months, we expect that many quality emerging-market investments will be oversold, as investors ‘sell first and ask questions later’.Emerging market (EM) debt has been suffering lately, posting a disappointing performance year-to-date. While we expect that at some point this sell-off will offer compelling opportunities for investors who have the patience to ride out the storm, we still recommend caution as, on a shorter horizon (the coming three months), US Treasury yields could...